May escalate the war to justify new mobilization
As noted by representatives of intelligence and military institutions from several European countries, in the coming months V. Putin will face a difficult choice regarding the logistics of a war of attrition. According to Western intelligence agencies’ assessments, Russia loses nearly 35,000 soldiers per month – more than the Kremlin can recruit.
Mobilization is technically entirely possible, as Russia’s mobilization system is organized, said Kaupo Rozin, director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
Dangerous moment
But just starting mobilization would send a signal that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, said European diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas. “So the moment comes when they need to escalate the situation to justify mobilization. And that is a very dangerous moment,” said the diplomat.
This further raises concerns about the possible expansion of the conflict into Europe, writes WSJ. Several European national security officials warned that Russia might try to test NATO unity by striking one of the Baltic states, islands of Sweden or Denmark in the Baltic Sea, or Alliance territory in the Arctic.
Over the past two years, the security situation in Europe has worsened, “and we see that Russia shows greater willingness to increase risk by conducting its hybrid operations, even resorting to direct armed impact,” said Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist.
Given that Russia has failed to make significant progress in Ukraine, V. Putin apparently seeks a broader conflict in Europe, increasingly targeting critical infrastructure and supply chains, according to the thesis of a report by Anne Keast-Butler, head of the British Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ). Based on her report’s statements, the risk of mistakes that could provoke a wider conflict is “greater than ever before.”
Russia may see a favorable opportunity due to these factors
High-ranking European officials fear that Russia may see a favorable opportunity within the next 12 months, as the oil price surge due to the war with Iran will cause additional political instability in Europe and strengthen far-right parties advocating for the resumption of Russian oil and gas purchases and the cessation of support for Ukraine. Additionally, US President Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw from NATO, as well as his actions aimed at reducing the US military presence in Europe, have weakened Russia’s deterrence factor.
V. Putin will have to escalate because “Russia cannot afford to continue the war on the current trajectory, as it will face a resource depletion trap,” believes Oleksandr Danyliuk, head of the Kyiv Defense Reforms Center. “He can do this vertically – by increasing the level of violence, including nuclear blackmail, though without using nuclear weapons. Or perhaps horizontally, by expanding the geography of the conflict,” said O. Danyliuk.
Zelensky proposes preparing for another 2-3 years of war
Sources from The Economist reported a possible resumption of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine this summer, but the publication writes it is more likely that the war will continue until one side loses. Sources in the Ukrainian government say Volodymyr Zelensky has ordered preparations for another 2–3 years of war.
In recent weeks, Russia announced allegedly successful tests of the “Sarmat” missile and conducted the largest nuclear exercises in history. Moreover, Moscow has sharply intensified rhetoric towards the Baltic states and published a list of European manufacturers producing weapons for Ukraine.
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