According to data from the Lithuanian Energy Agency, in July, the prices of fixed electricity plans for 12 and 24 months were significantly higher than at the same time last year. The average price of 24-month single time zone plans was about 29.5 cnt/kWh, while in July 2025 it was about 24.6 cnt/kWh. At the same time, Lithuania produced as much as 98% of the electricity consumed during one week in July.
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“At first glance, it may seem paradoxical that we have more and more solar and wind power plants, and at certain times we can already produce almost all the electricity we need ourselves, yet the newly recorded prices are higher than a year ago. It is important to understand that the electricity price is influenced not only by how much we produce, but also when it is produced, what the prices of other raw materials are, the capacity of the grids, and the situation in the region,” says Mantas Kavaliauskas, Commercial Director of Elektrum Lietuva.
Green energy production remains uneven
Although Lithuania can produce an increasing share of the required electricity itself, renewable resource production remains uneven. Solar power plants produce mostly during the day, wind power production depends on weather conditions, while electricity demand remains around the clock. Therefore, a large amount of electricity produced in a month or even a single day does not necessarily mean it is sufficient when consumption rises and solar and wind power production decreases.
This is well illustrated by the results of June this year. Solar power plants in Lithuania produced a record 421.8 GWh of electricity in a month, covering almost 45% of the country’s electricity demand. Including all local production sources, electricity produced in Lithuania in June met about 93% of total demand. Despite this, the average wholesale electricity price increased by 14% over the month.
“The June results clearly show that increasing the volume of green production alone is not enough – it is important that we can use as much of the produced energy as possible when it is most needed. This requires greater storage capacity, more flexible consumption, and better integration of different production sources. This is exactly what can help reduce price fluctuations in the long run,” explains M. Kavaliauskas.
Not only electricity itself is getting more expensive
Even with rapidly growing local production, electricity prices in the country remain dependent on surrounding markets because Lithuania is part of a common energy system. Therefore, it is important not only how much electricity we produce ourselves but also how much is produced in neighboring countries, what the demand is at the time, the prices of energy resources, and how much electricity can be transferred between markets.
These factors are also reflected in the fixed electricity prices offered to consumers. However, it is important to understand that they are determined not only by the current situation on the exchange but also by market expectations for the future. Currently, prices already include upcoming winter risks – lower solar generation, higher consumption, gas prices, and the situation in the region.
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“Fixed price offers from suppliers are largely determined by electricity futures prices on the exchange. As the cold season approaches, they face pressure due to uncertain geopolitical situations and expensive gas. Despite high prices, Europe is in no hurry to stockpile gas, but insufficient filling of gas reservoirs is already causing increasing concern – it may be that later it will be necessary to buy it at even higher prices, which will also affect electricity prices,” says M. Kavaliauskas.
However, this does not mean that fixed electricity prices offered to consumers will increase further in autumn or winter. Market expectations already show that prices should stabilize in 2027, so there is currently no reason to expect a significant tariff increase compared to the current level.
Mantas Kavaliauskas, Commercial Director of Elektrum Lietuva, also reminds that the final price paid by the consumer consists not only of electricity but also of state-regulated components – electricity transmission and other grid costs, which are also gradually increasing. For example, since the beginning of this year, ESO’s “Standard” single time zone transmission component for household consumers has increased from 10 to 11.1 cnt/kWh. And from the beginning of next year, an additional component is planned to compensate suppliers for losses incurred by producing consumers.
When could electricity become cheaper?
According to M. Kavaliauskas, it is difficult to precisely state when electricity prices will start to consistently decrease, but for now, significant seasonal price fluctuations will remain.
Greater electricity price reductions can be expected in spring, after the heating season ends, when electricity demand decreases and solar power production returns to higher levels. In autumn and winter, prices will be pushed up by higher electricity consumption, lower solar and wind generation, and the greater importance of other power plants, including gas-fired ones.
“It will not be possible to completely avoid seasonal price fluctuations – in our region, solar generation is very limited in winter, so during this period we depend more on other electricity production sources. However, we can better utilize the growing local renewable energy production on a daily basis. When solar and wind power plants produce a lot of electricity, energy storage systems can help save it and use it in later hours. This is one of the most important directions that can reduce large electricity price fluctuations during the day due to uneven production and consumption,” says the Commercial Director of Elektrum Lietuva.
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