“Now in the corridors and high offices there is active talk about the need for a new large-scale mobilization. Moreover, well-informed people say that a fundamental decision on this issue has already been made and it will be in the autumn,” wrote A. Guruliov.
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However, according to him, such a decision “will not make a breakthrough” if the problem of Ukrainian drones, which “cut down infantry” at the approaches, do not allow “storm groups to raise their heads” and “simply flood” both the front line and the nearest rear, is not solved. “We will simply face a multiple increase in losses,” predicts A. Guruliov.
“Stop nurturing illusions that ‘we will break through soon’”
He also draws attention to the situation in Crimea, where there is a shortage of gasoline, and unmanned drone attacks on the so-called Novorossiya highway, through which the peninsula must be supplied by land. “The enemy is acting brazenly, trying to cut off the peninsula and our southern groups from fuel supply,” complained A. Guruliov, quoted by The Moscow Times.
According to him, the front offensive “has basically held,” and the “special military operation has finally turned into a brutal positional stalemate,” which is “a harbinger of exhaustion if the initiative is not seized in time.”
“Stop nurturing illusions that ‘we will break through soon.’ This will not happen unless we fundamentally change our approach,” urges A. Guruliov.
He rushed to justify himself
A few hours after the announcement was made, A. Guruliov rushed to justify himself, saying that his Telegram account, where the post about the planned autumn mobilization appeared, was “hacked.”
On his channel in the Max messaging app, the deputy stated that the posts on his account are “spread by enemies” and called what happened a “provocation.”
What is known about the possible mobilization
Earlier, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) wrote about the possibility of a new mobilization in Russia. In its report “The Impending Crisis of Russia’s Political Economy,” it noted that current capacities to finance combat operations and replenish the ranks of groups fighting in Ukraine are almost exhausted, and the Kremlin faces a “fundamental choice” – either to reduce its military ambitions or to sharply increase demands on the economy and society.
The second scenario, according to IISS, may include a new mobilization, border closures, restrictions on labor freedom (with orders to send people to defense enterprises), and a transition to a “fully militarized economy” combining state ownership and state price control.
In February, experts from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote that the Kremlin is preparing the public for a new “partial mobilization.” In their opinion, new laws adopted at the end of last year regarding the use of reservists and conscription throughout the year are proof of this possibility.
ISW and IISS unanimously believe that by increasing internet censorship, the Kremlin may be preparing measures to suppress public discontent.
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