Dmitry Kry
Dmitry Krymsky, one of the founders of the “Goodwine” network, estimates that in just three weeks, Russian strikes have caused about 500 million USD in damage to Ukrainian businesses.
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On July 19, a Russian ballistic missile hit a warehouse from which goods were supplied to the “Goodwine” store. Two weeks later, six employees were killed in strikes on two “Silpo” network logistics centers. The private postal service “Nova Poshta,” used by the majority of Ukrainians, is also regularly shelled.
Russia strengthens ballistic missile production
According to available data, Moscow has significantly increased ballistic missile production, while Ukraine’s air defense reserves are running low, so it can only protect certain priority targets. In July, Russia launched a record number – 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles, mostly targeting the Kyiv region.
This terror became a response to successful Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian defense industry factories, oil refineries, Azov Sea ports, and burned warehouses of the online retail giant “Wildberries,” where equipment intended for the occupiers was stored.
Ukrainian strikes also damage the Russian economy: oil refineries have lost more than 30% of their capacity, and gasoline coupons, which were mostly applied in 80 regions, are still valid in 18. Analysts estimate “Wildberries” losses at 2–4 billion USD – the company lost almost a third of its facilities.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s “Starlink” satellite internet, inaccessible to the occupiers, gives Ukraine an advantage in using medium-range drones in occupied territories.
Odesa ports – Russia’s target
As stated in the article, pressure is now felt in both directions, but Ukraine has proven to be more vulnerable. Odesa ports, the country’s main economic artery, felt the threat first.
The situation escalated in mid-July when Russia began directly hunting ships. On July 19, cruise missiles hit a Turkish cargo ship near Chornomorsk and sank it. Ten people died. Since then, almost every ship entering or leaving Odesa has been attacked – according to the publication, from a commercial perspective, the ports have become paralyzed.
“One 100,000-ton ship equals 5,000 trucks, 5,000 drivers, and 5,000 border procedures,” emphasized Dmitry Barinov, president of the “Ukrport” association.
According to him, the situation is now worse than in 2022, when some losses were compensated by Danube ports. Now this route has also become more difficult due to low water levels and shelling.
Enemy losses
It is noted that Russian occupation forces in the east lose more than 1,000 soldiers daily and struggle to compensate for these losses, while the Ukrainian army conducts local counterattacks. As a result, the conflict has fully moved into the airspace.
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At the same time, experts point out a significant difference in assessing the damage done to Russia. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that since August 2025, the damage to Russia’s oil refining sector amounts to 13.5 billion USD. However, Carnegie Foundation analyst Sergey Vakulenko believes the real losses are much lower.
“The strikes cause damage, but not on the scale or within the timeframe reported by Ukraine,” the expert said.
Threat to the harvest
Alex Lisitsa, president of the Ukrainian agribusiness club, says that if the harvest, amounting to about 50 million tons, cannot be sold, farmers may altogether refuse autumn sowing.
This could increase sector losses to 10–12 billion USD, or about 5% of Ukraine’s official GDP. This would impact not only the country’s food security but also its positions in African and Middle Eastern markets.
One former high-ranking official compared the situation to a football match:
“It’s like we played open football with the Brazilians. We scored three goals and are celebrating, but they scored thirteen.”
The publication concludes that this year Ukraine managed to change the course of the war, but the pressure, which was supposed to increase approaching winter, started earlier. Without stable air defense missile interceptors, the country’s economic and military situation could suffer greatly, so Western partners will have to increase support.
In Kyiv, the worst-case scenario is also being considered – that strikes on energy infrastructure, water supply, and sewage systems could trigger mass emigration.
“Will they do it? Quite possible,” said a source in Ukraine’s security sector.
Destruction of “Wildberries” may strengthen the Russian army
Earlier, UNIAN wrote that strikes on “Wildberries” could also have negative consequences for Ukraine. According to war expert and former Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) employee Ivan Stupak, about 27% of the trading platform’s capacity has already been destroyed, and strikes have been ongoing since July 18, 2026.
According to him, this may encourage some of the approximately half a million sellers who will lose their jobs to seek livelihoods in the Russian army – one of the few places in the country currently paying high salaries.
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