Below, we look at what to expect from Xi Jinping’s meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
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What happened during previous meetings?
In 2019, Xi Jinping became the first Chinese leader to visit North Korea in 14 years.
Thousands of people waved flags as the two leaders drove through Pyongyang in an open limousine and watched performances depicting Chinese and Korean soldiers fighting together in the Korean War.
Xi Jinping praised the “unbreakable friendship” between the two countries, and analysts will be watching next week to see if similar festivities take place.
A year ago, Kim Jong Un said that North Korea and China were “like family” and sought close ties with the Asian giant, on which his country is economically dependent.
However, in recent years, Kim Jong Un has sought to balance this dependence by strengthening ties with Russia.
China-North Korea exchanges halted when Pyongyang closed its borders during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Direct air and rail travel between the two countries has only gradually resumed since March this year.
The two leaders last met in Beijing in September, when Kim Jong Un attended a massive Chinese military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
Why now?
After meetings with D. Trump and V. Putin, Xi Jinping is “moving quickly to establish a ‘mediator’s veto’ on the Korean Peninsula,” according to Lee Seong-hyon of the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations.
D. Trump has said he is open to another meeting with Kim Jong Un, with whom he met three times during his first term.
“By stepping into Pyongyang now, Xi Jinping ensures that any revived Washington-Pyongyang diplomatic path cannot bypass Beijing’s core interests or alter the region’s security architecture without his consent,” the foundation expert told AFP news agency.
Beijing also wants “balance by controlling increasingly close North Korea-Russia relations,” said Hong Min of the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.
Pyongyang’s recently unveiled new nuclear facilities and missile tests may also be a cause for concern for Beijing.
On Wednesday, Kim Jong Un pledged to “exponentially” increase nuclear military capabilities, Pyongyang’s state news agency KCNA reported.
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On the international stage, isolated North Korea is already subject to strict sanctions due to its nuclear activities.
“Beijing recognizes the urgent need to manage this friction before Kim Jong Un’s actions irreversibly and automatically expand U.S., South Korean, and Japanese military capabilities into China’s immediate periphery,” said Lee Seong-hyong.
What do the leaders want?
Xi Jinping’s visit will be his first foreign trip this year, although he has hosted dozens of world leaders in Beijing in recent months.
The visit to North Korea is “a deliberate visual refutation of the prevailing view in Western capitals that Pyongyang has quietly shifted into Moscow’s orbit,” according to Lee Seong-hyong.
Xi Jinping will seek to solidify China’s central role in the region, and for Kim Jong Un, the mere “visual respect for a visit to North Korean territory” is a win, he said.
The visit is also part of broader efforts by China, Russia, and North Korea to “present a united front against the U.S. and Japan,” said Lim Eul-chul, a North Korea expert at South Korea’s Kyungnam University.
Nevertheless, North Korea has “few options for seeking diplomatic recognition from a major power” and may seek more development aid from China, according to James Char of Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
What could this mean for the region?
“This meeting signifies Beijing’s tacit approval of Kim Jong Un’s nuclear status,” said Lee Seong-hyong.
“China is increasingly willing to bear the growing ‘cost of tolerance’ for North Korea’s nuclear advancements, as a persistent Pyongyang effectively ties up American and allied military resources,” he asserted.
However, Beijing still wants to limit Pyongyang’s potentially destabilizing actions in the region.
“If North Korea acts provocatively and belligerently, it could lead to a regional conflict that might contradict China’s interests,” said Hong Min.
South Korea stated its hope that North Korea-China exchanges would contribute to peace and stability.
“We can expect future relations to be highly transactional,” said Lee Seong-hyong.
“North Korea will create geopolitical friction against the U.S. and its allies, and in return, China will provide a structural, economic lifeline essential for the regime’s survival,” he asserted.
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