Although Belarus did not send its troops into battle, A. Lukashenko supported President Vladimir Putin’s war actions by accepting Russian nuclear weapons and military infrastructure and manufacturing components for Moscow’s military industry. Earlier this month, the countries held joint nuclear forces exercises using Russian weapons deployed in Belarus.
A. Lukashenko, who has been in power for more than three decades, rules the country of 9.5 million people with an iron fist, ruthlessly suppressing the opposition and relying on close ties with Russia and subsidies from the Kremlin treasury to offset ongoing Western sanctions.
Moscow and Minsk’s military cooperation increasingly worries Ukraine’s allies.
Belarus’s role in Ukraine
When V. Putin launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian forces gathered in Belarus under the pretext of exercises moved toward Kyiv, located just about 90 km south of the border.
V. Putin’s hope to quickly capture Kyiv was thwarted by Ukraine’s determined resistance, and the Russian tank columns stretched along narrow roads became easy prey.
A little over a month after the invasion began, Russian forces, having suffered heavy losses and struggling to maintain supply lines, withdrew from Kyiv and other occupied territories in northeastern Ukraine, with the Kremlin calling it a “gesture of goodwill.”
When Moscow tried to negotiate a quick end to the war a few weeks after the large-scale conflict began, the first negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegations took place in Belarus. Later, the talks moved to Istanbul, but no agreement was reached.
As the conflict turned into a grinding war, Belarus began playing an important role in supporting Moscow’s war efforts. Belarusian factories produced critical components, including microchips and other electronics, optical targeting systems, artillery shells, and heavy trucks transporting Russian ballistic missiles.
Ukraine’s presidential envoy on sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, stated that microchips from Belarus were found in the debris of the “Oreshnik” ballistic missile that Russia launched at Ukraine on May 24. He urged Western allies to tighten sanctions on Belarus.
Belarus also provided training grounds for Moscow’s troops, conducted joint exercises, and allowed its hospitals to be used to treat wounded Russian soldiers.
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A group of former military and law enforcement officers opposing A. Lukashenko, BELPOL, indicated that Belarusian industry was effectively integrated into the Kremlin’s war machine. According to them, more than 500 Belarusian industrial enterprises are involved in manufacturing weapons and ammunition, repairing military equipment, and providing logistics services.
“The Lukashenko regime is very seriously involved in the war,” BELPOL head Uladzimir Zhihar told the news agency AP. “Lukashenko helps Russia in every possible way.”
A large training ground and barracks for a significant number of troops are being built in the Gomel region bordering Ukraine, said U. Zhihar. He added that Ukraine was forced to keep a considerable number of forces near the Belarusian border, which prevents their use in fighting Russian troops along the more than 1,000 km long front line.
Under Russia’s nuclear umbrella
Belarus, which also borders NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, has accepted some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons. In December, Russia announced that its latest medium-range nuclear warhead-capable missile system “Oreshnik” had become operational in Belarus.
Russia used the conventionally armed version of “Oreshnik” three times—in November 2024, later in January, and at the beginning of this month—to strike Ukrainian targets.
In 2024, the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine, including Belarus under Russia’s nuclear umbrella. V. Putin stated that Moscow would maintain control over its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus but would allow its ally to select targets in case of conflict.
Earlier this month, Russia and Belarus held massive exercises during which nuclear warheads were delivered to missile units and prepared for launch. During these exercises, a Belarusian missile crew test-fired an “Iskander” missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead from a range in southern Russia.
“Belarus lacks military sovereignty, and as soon as Moscow decides it is necessary for its strategy, it will undoubtedly use Belarus as a springboard for a new invasion of Ukraine or some armed conflict with NATO countries,” said U. Zhihar, noting that Belarus offers a “very convenient springboard” for this.
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