The meeting took place on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila, which both diplomats had already attended. Such high-level meetings often provide opportunities for bilateral negotiations, even between adversaries.
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But the conversation lasted only about half an hour. What message can be conveyed in such a short time?
Kremlin propaganda rushed to announce that S. Lavrov informed his colleague about the “real situation” on the front with Ukraine, once again recalling the long-dead, if they ever existed, agreements in Alaska. Allegedly, it is based on these that Russia is ready to negotiate for peace. It must be understood that this would only be the case if the entire Donbas were handed over to Russian control.
The Kremlin also emphasized that it warned the US and Europe about the danger of further “escalation” and the supply of military aid to Ukraine.
“High probability that the content of the conversation was different”
It’s somehow hard to believe that M. Rubio missed S. Lavrov’s fairy tales and decided to listen for another half an hour about the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, to once again hear Russia’s lamentations about the faded “spirit” of Anchorage. There is a high probability that the reason and the content of the conversation were somewhat different.
I would think it much more likely that it was the US that warned Russia.
US intelligence has been investigating for some time whether Russia provided Iran with targeted intelligence for attacks against CIA facilities and other US assets in the Persian Gulf region. Or whether it used satellite navigation information for this. Recently, an improved accuracy of Iranian drones has been observed.
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It is very likely that M. Rubio decided to warn S. Lavrov about this and perhaps seek an explanation or simply assess Russia’s reaction.
It is likely that Russia was warned about possible consequences if the intelligence information is confirmed. (If it has not yet been confirmed). Such “exercises” are standard diplomatic practice.
I believe Russia understood long ago that US assessments, attitudes, and behavior towards both Russia and Ukraine have radically changed. The US has sufficient intelligence capabilities to properly assess the “real” situation on the front, and they do not need Russia’s insights.
On the contrary, the decisions currently being prepared regarding both sanctions and military aid to Ukraine can only intensify further. Let’s hope that this is exactly what happens.
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