The economy is growing
Although it is often repeated in the public space that support for Ukraine supposedly “exhausts” Lithuania’s economy, official data does not confirm such a conclusion.
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It is important to distinguish two different concepts: Russia’s war in Ukraine has harmed the European and Lithuanian economies, but this does not mean that Lithuania’s support for Ukraine is the cause of economic problems.
The Bank of Lithuania already stated in 2022 that economic growth was suppressed by the consequences of Russia’s war, especially the surge in energy prices and high inflation.
When assessing the impact of support for Ukraine on Lithuania’s economy, it is important to choose the appropriate period. The year 2022, when Russia launched a large-scale invasion, was exceptional not only because of the geopolitical shock but also due to the energy crisis affecting all of Europe, disrupted supply chains, and rapidly rising inflation. Therefore, a short-term economic slowdown at that time does not by itself prove a causal link between support for Ukraine and economic indicators.
For this reason, it is more appropriate to evaluate data from 2024–2025. During this period, support for Ukraine remained large and consistent, but the economy was already operating without the initial shock caused by the war.
If claims that support for Ukraine “destroys the economy” were justified, the negative impact should also be visible in later years. However, official statistics show the opposite trend – Lithuania’s economy grew, residents’ incomes increased, and international institutions assessed the country’s economic prospects favorably.
In 2024, Lithuania allocated about 0.28% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to Ukraine – approximately 210 million euros. However, at the same time, the country’s economy grew: Lithuania’s GDP increased by 2.8% in 2024.
According to the Ministry of National Defence (KAM), in 2025 Lithuania allocated nearly 232 million euros in military aid to Ukraine. According to KAM, the majority of this consists of military support – weapons purchased for the Ukrainian army and equipment transferred from Lithuanian army warehouses.
Stable growth recorded
Experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after analyzing Lithuania’s economy, concluded that the country’s economy maintained stable growth amid recurring global shocks.
In 2025, Lithuania’s economy grew by 2.9%, mainly due to domestic demand, wage and pension growth, increased government sector spending, and more favorable financing conditions. The IMF, based on the main forecast scenario, expects economic growth to also reach 2.9% in 2026.
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Economists and international institutions link Lithuania’s growth to recovering consumption, investments, and exports, not to a reduction in support for Ukraine. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that after a slowdown in 2022–2023, Lithuania’s economic growth has picked up again and is expected to remain positive in the coming years.
Lithuania remains a growing economy in the European Union, developing sectors such as technology, financial services, lasers, biotechnology, and logistics.
Lithuania’s economy grew the fastest in the European Union in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the latest Eurostat data. Compared to the previous quarter, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.7%.
This was the largest quarterly growth among all EU countries. Other countries with positive growth included Spain and Portugal, whose economies grew by 0.8% each, and Finland – 0.6%.
15min verdict: false. Claims that support for Ukraine destroys Lithuania’s economy are not supported by official data. Although Lithuania allocates hundreds of millions of euros annually for military, humanitarian, and financial aid to Ukraine, economic indicators do not show a negative impact that could be directly linked to this support.
On the contrary, Lithuania’s economy grew in 2024–2025, residents’ incomes increased, and international institutions assessed the country’s prospects favorably.
The greatest impact on Lithuania’s economy after 2022 was not support for Ukraine, but the energy price shock, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty caused by Russia’s war itself. Therefore, there is no basis to claim that support for Ukraine harms Lithuania’s economy.
This publication was prepared by 15min in cooperation with Meta, aiming to stop the spread of misleading news on social media. More about the program and its rules – here.
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