According to the analysis, the Ukrainian army recaptured 282 square kilometers in a month, with Kyiv rejoicing over the improving situation in the vast battlefield in the south and east of the country.
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The pace of the Russian advance has been slowing since the end of 2025, hindered by the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian front-line and medium-range drone strikes, ISW reported.
In April, Moscow lost control of about 120 square kilometers – the first month in two and a half years when its forces ceded more territory than they captured.
However, Russian soldiers are still entrenched in most of the territories recaptured by Ukraine, ISW said.
The Russian military regularly sends small groups of soldiers to occupy positions in some parts of the front line and hide there – this tactic is intended to pave the way for larger groups of soldiers to advance later.
Ukraine’s gains in April and May – totaling about 403 square kilometers – remain small and account for about 0.4% of all Russian-controlled territory.
Nevertheless, they show a positive trend for Kyiv, which claims to have recently gained the upper hand in the four-year-long conflict.
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“Successful Ukrainian medium-range and front-line drone strike campaigns limit Russia’s ability to transport personnel to the front, as well as to supply and maintain front-line positions,” ISW reported last week.
Most of the gains were achieved by Ukraine in the eastern Donetsk region, which Russia claims and is fighting to fully occupy, and in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.
These assessments do not include Russian-reported gains, which ISW neither confirmed nor denied.
ISW collaborates with the Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute – another US think tank specializing in conflict analysis.
Moscow occupies just over 19% of Ukraine’s territory.
This includes about 7% – Crimea and part of the industrial Donbas region – which were already controlled by Russia or pro-Russian separatists before the February 2022 invasion.
Most territories were captured by Russia during the first weeks of the conflict.
Since February 2022, when Russia invaded the country, hundreds of thousands of people have died, and millions have been forced to leave their homes.
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