„The Telegraph“ analyzes what aggression scenarios against NATO Russia might consider and where it could strike.
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Option 1. “Crimea scenario” attacking neighboring NATO countries
This is the most discussed possible scenario of Putin’s actions.
It could be imagined that “activists,” actually Russian agents operating undercover, would start protests over artificially created alleged discrimination of the ethnic Russian minority, for example, in the Estonian city of Narva or the Latvian city of Daugavpils. Using the protests as cover, Russian soldiers, initially without distinguishing marks and dressed in civilian clothes, would cross the border and take control of key cities.
Theoretically, NATO would find itself in a difficult position: is this a Russian attack or just street protests? While the Alliance hesitates, Russia could deploy troops supposedly “to maintain peace.” Within a few days, Russia could effectively take control of part of NATO territory.
However, it would be difficult to repeat this scenario. After the annexation of Crimea, the governments of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania prepared precisely for such a scenario.
Option 2. Conventional attack on neighboring states
This would be the worst but least likely scenario – a direct conventional attack.
An attack launched simultaneously from Kaliningrad and Belarus could cut off the Suwałki corridor – a narrow border strip between Poland and Lithuania. Meanwhile, Russian paratroopers or marines could land on the Swedish island of Gotland, disrupting air supply.
The three Baltic states would be cut off from the rest of NATO. The Russian military could push towards Tallinn, Riga, and Vilnius.
However, as with the “Crimea scenario,” such an operation has already been widely analyzed and preparations are underway.
Option 3. Invasion
One possible scenario is a Russian helicopter “emergency landing” near the Kaliningrad border due to engine problems. To ensure the security of the object in neighboring Polish or Lithuanian territory and to return the crew, a “rescue group” would be sent.
Various versions of the so-called “missing helicopter” scenario are possible, including missiles and drones that would “accidentally” fly over Ukraine and fall in Poland, Romania, or Moldova.
In this way, Russia could signal that much greater damage could be done in the future, trying to intimidate Western politicians and thus influence their support for Ukraine.
Option 4. “False flag” operation
Reports increasingly appear that the Kremlin is accumulating captured or downed Ukrainian drones that could be used for provocation.
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In such a case, the aim would be to divide NATO unity and weaken support for Ukraine by creating the impression that a massive air strike on Russia tragically failed and some weapons fell on NATO territory.
Poland, where anti-Ukrainian sentiment is already growing, could become an attractive target for such a strike.
Option 5. Sabotage in Europe
Russia has already shown it can carry out sabotage operations across Europe, often choosing countries less prepared for such threats than its direct neighbors.
If Putin were looking for a way to test NATO, the next logical step could be an operation causing casualties, such as a train derailment or a factory explosion.
However, Russia cannot precisely know what scale of escalation would change Western policy as it wishes. Therefore, such operations carry the risk that instead of the desired political effect, a military response will be provoked.
Option 6. Cyberattack
Systematic cyberattacks could theoretically be the basis to activate NATO’s collective defense principle. However, due to their nature, it is often difficult to determine who is responsible, and it is unclear what countermeasures should be taken.
Such an attack would not necessarily have to be devastating. For example, disrupting stock exchange operations and causing panic in the market or closing an important airport could cause huge inconveniences and affect political decision-making.
The Kremlin hopes that such attacks will not provoke a significant response. According to the publication, this is the main deterrence issue for such actions.
Putin’s attack on NATO
According to ISW, CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow indicates that Russia may be preparing for an attack on NATO in the near future.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continues to dismiss such a possibility. He also stated that the CIA chief’s visit to Moscow is a “routine matter.”
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