What happened in Egypt
Recently, Ukraine attacked an Iranian cargo ship carrying military supplies between Iran and Russia in the Caspian Sea. A few days later, Iranian drones attacked liquefied natural gas tankers at a port on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast – this was the first attack on this country during the war with Iran.
As noted by Alpine Macro’s chief geopolitical strategist Dan Almaru, the attack in the Mediterranean could affect gas prices in Europe, shipping rates, and insurance costs. This happened after Iran demanded that European countries force Ukraine to answer for the attack on the ship in the Caspian Sea.
“The wars between Iran and Ukraine may be connected. After Ukraine’s strike in the Caspian Sea, a few days later gas carriers caught fire in the Mediterranean. Perhaps this is not a coincidence – there is a risk that the two conflicts will converge,” the expert warned.
Why did Ukraine strike the Iranian ship?
Iranian expert Hamidreza Azizi outlined several possible reasons for Ukraine’s strike on the Iranian ship.
One is that Ukraine wants to demonstrate its value as a partner to the US.
Another view is that Israel and the US asked Ukraine to pressure Iran on their behalf, fearing that any strikes on Iranian infrastructure would provoke retaliatory actions against their regional economic assets.
The third option is that Ukraine’s attack was a response to Houthi rebels’ threats to ships in the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
Financial Times also believes that Ukraine’s strike could have been a warning that Iran’s Caspian Sea coast is vulnerable and could be used as leverage in negotiations with the US.
Former US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, who served in the first Donald Trump administration, previously stated that the war with Iran should be internationalized by involving American allies in Asia and Europe, as well as countries bordering Iran – Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
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Energy expert Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, also stated that the war with Iran is expanding geographically and geopolitically.
“Think about all the seas – the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Caspian Sea – all have become arenas of the oil war,” he said.
Russia escalates the conflict
In turn, Russia is also seeking to expand its sphere of influence. In recent weeks, there have been several drone incidents in Romania, and a Russian missile also fell in Poland, violating NATO airspace.
The European Policy Analysis Center stated that these incidents indicate that Russia’s “shadow war” against NATO is moving southward.
The wars of Iran and Ukraine
Earlier media reports said that Iran considered striking a Ukrainian seaport with missiles in response to Ukraine’s strike on the Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, but active diplomatic efforts have so far stabilized the situation.
Meanwhile, the publication Zeit writes that the war between Russia and Ukraine is gaining momentum and has entered a phase of maximum escalation. The consequences of this conflict’s intensification will be felt even by countries trying to maintain neutrality.
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