Experts came to this conclusion after analyzing statements published following the visit of US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow.
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The analysis states that essentially it is about Moscow continuing to hold maximalist demands set by V. Putin in June 2024.
Among them are the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including territories not controlled by Russia, the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine, as well as Kyiv’s withdrawal from any plans to join NATO.
According to analysts, it is the statement by V. Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov, made after the meeting with the US delegation, that “shows that the Kremlin, as before, does not want to make any fundamental compromises on Russia’s maximalist demands.”
Experts believe that by raising his demands, the Kremlin’s host thinks that Russia has an advantage on the battlefield, but as noted in the analysis, his perception is distorted.
Attention was also drawn to J. Ushakov’s remarks to S. Witkoff and J. Kushner when he spoke about “significant Russian achievements” on the front line. However, as the Institute for the Study of War points out, such claims are exaggerated and do not reflect reality.
“A person close to the Kremlin stated before Witkoff and Kushner’s visit to Moscow that there would be no peace agreement until the Russian army occupies the remaining part of the Donetsk region, and noted that Putin is convinced that the Russian army can occupy the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2026 – the final deadline set by the Kremlin to achieve this goal,” the report says.
Analysts reminded that Russian military commanders constantly provide V. Putin with information about the front line situation that does not correspond to reality, thus exaggerating their achievements and portraying Ukrainian defense as collapsing.
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“The lies and distortion of information by Russian military commanders at various levels likely lead to Putin becoming increasingly stubborn that Russian soldiers can achieve the set goals in the Donetsk region by the end of 2026, so he does not need to make any compromises to achieve his goals,” experts explained.
However, according to them, Russia will not be able to occupy the Donetsk region by the end of the year.
Analysts reminded that since February 2022, V. Putin has set at least 15 deadlines for the occupation of the Donetsk region.
“Russian military forces will not meet the new deadline set by Putin – to occupy the entire Donetsk region by December 31, 2026. The Russians have been fighting for Kostiantynivka since October 2025 and have not been able to occupy it for 11 months. They have not even managed to enter other so-called ‘fortress belt’ cities – Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka – or occupy them, and will not be able to occupy all three in the remaining four months of 2026, considering they have failed to complete any of their occupation operations in almost a year,” the report states.
According to experts, “Putin’s fantasy about the battlefield remains detached from the real Ukrainian defensive resources and his own weakened offensive capabilities.”
As noted, many of the Donbas occupation deadlines set by the Kremlin leader “partly reflect his need to ensure a significant informational victory for the Russian people.” They reminded that V. Putin has long promised Russians victory “in exchange for enduring the burden of war.”
According to analysts, “Russian forces, given their current pace of advance, will not occupy the Donetsk region until 2032, if they manage to occupy it at all.”
They reminded that in August, the Russian advance rate was 2.91 sq km per day, which is only slightly more compared to previous months. Based on this, analysts calculated that at this pace, the Russians could occupy the remaining 19 percent of the Donetsk region only by October 2, 2032.
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