September 20 elections
According to WSJ sources, the new wave of mobilization will allow thousands of recruits to be brought to the front. Such a step will most likely be taken after the Russian parliamentary elections scheduled for September 20, according to the publication’s sources.
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WSJ sources reported that the measures currently being applied by the Russian authorities to replenish the ranks of the army fighting in Ukraine have allowed a slight increase in the number of Russian troops at the front. However, they say this is not enough to achieve any serious gains.
If Vladimir Putin intends to continue seeking full control over the entire territory of Ukraine’s Donbas, “he may have no other choice but to declare mobilization,” says Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
The new mobilization would target Russians without military experience
The first wave of mobilization was primarily aimed at reservists and citizens with military experience, while the new one will likely affect people who practically have neither the appropriate training nor the desire to participate in military actions, writes WSJ.
At the same time, the political risk of such a decision may outweigh the possible military benefit at the front, the publication states. Some Russians are already declaring their readiness to resist such developments, including with violence.
“As soon as they give me a weapon, I will shoot those who mobilized me,” said 53-year-old reserve officer Dmitry Rogin, who belongs to the group of citizens potentially targeted by the new wave of mobilization.
The new wave of mobilization in Russia is fueling fears with raids against men of conscription age in various regions. In the Penza region, security forces and civilians, assisted by local authorities, participate in these raids.
Reports of increasing intensity of raids against men have also come from Udmurtia, Ulyanovsk, and Rostov regions. Similar measures are being taken by authorities in Tatarstan, Amur and Yaroslavl regions, Kaluga, Voronezh, and Arkhangelsk, writes WSJ.
Looking for specialists to carry out mobilization
Russian state structures, state enterprises, and businesses have recently announced more than two thousand job openings for specialists with experience in military registration, according to an analysis by the “Agentstvo” portal. Rights defenders named preparation for a new wave of mobilization as one possible explanation.
Volodymyr Zelensky stated on July 25 that Vladimir Putin is preparing conditions for the expansion of mobilization in Russia because Russian army losses exceed the number of recruits. The Ukrainian president suggested that a new mobilization could be announced in the fall – after the State Duma elections.
Last week Dmitry Medvedev responded to this. He called statements about mobilization an alleged attempt to destabilize the situation before the autumn elections in Russia and said that “there is no need for that.”
At the same time, the numbers he published show that recruitment of contract soldiers and volunteers into the army is decreasing.
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