Andrijus Kovalenka, head of the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation, spoke about this.
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According to him, the dilemma is that V. Putin is interested in mobilization, but its announcement would destroy the social contract between the authorities and the population, the essence of which is that the war is happening somewhere far away, and mostly those who want to earn money volunteer to go to the front.
However, V. Putin does not intend to stop the war, assured A. Kovalenka, quoted by the portal “New Voice”.
“Putin does not want to end the war at least until 2028 and is already planning military actions for all of 2027. Not everyone supports these goals either, so there is room to influence Moscow,” emphasized the center’s head.
According to him, such tools of influence are strikes on the Russian economy, as well as EU support for Ukraine.
“And all this can be strengthened by the will of the US and China,” added A. Kovalenka.
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He noted that the room for maneuver remains quite limited, but the situation is not hopeless.
At the same time, it is important for Ukraine to maintain internal unity because, as the center’s head warned, Russia will direct significant resources not only to the battlefield but also to the informational and political spheres. Specifically, emphasized A. Kovalenka, Moscow will try to support separate potential political projects in Ukraine by providing funding and looking for suitable leaders.
What Zelensky said
15min reminds that on July 26, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that V. Putin plans to hold a new mobilization this fall. According to V. Zelensky, since the beginning of the year, the Russian Ministry of Defense has recruited 221 thousand contract soldiers, but that was not enough: losses during the same period amounted to 225.5 thousand people, including 131 thousand dead.
V. Zelensky believes that V. Putin will announce mobilization after the State Duma elections on September 20; between 300 and 500 thousand people may be sent to the front during it.
“He wants to strengthen mobilization. Not openly, because he fears his own society, but he will do it at the beginning of October if we do not cause him problems with logistics, weapons, gasoline, and diesel, and if our partners do not impose comprehensive sanctions for his aggression,” emphasized the Ukrainian president, adding that V. Putin will end the war only in case of defeat.
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