Diplomats assessed that there is growing understanding in his environment that the war needs to end. Dissatisfaction is also increasing in society, but “as long as V. Putin leads, nothing will change.”
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“The Kremlin is simply furious when Putin is compared to Adolf Hitler. But the comparisons are begging to be made.
Hitler probably was not pathologically “detached” from reality, but until the spring of 1945 he sincerely believed that Germany’s will was strong enough and capable of overcoming all obstacles and material losses.
Just like in Putin’s environment, many of Hitler’s subordinates presented their leader with a distorted picture, softened bad news, or amplified positive news because they feared his reaction,” writes L. Linkevičius.
He pointed out that A. Hitler still believed in some miracle, the appearance of miraculous weapons, patiently waiting for the enemies, the allies to politically split and collapse.
“Although victory seemed less and less realistic militarily, he continued to give orders to attack and demanded that units occupy already unbearable positions.
Perhaps now Russia’s situation is not so hopeless, the Ukrainians have not surrounded Moscow and the allies have not opened a second front, do not directly conduct military actions against Russia, only support Ukraine with their money and weapons, but Putin’s victory project increasingly resembles a mirage,” said the ambassador.
According to him, V. Putin’s orders to attack at any cost, sacrificing his soldiers for incomprehensible goals, wasting resources and dragging the country into an inevitable economic crisis are becoming a harsh reality.
“Putin is still convinced that he can win a war of attrition. Along with ballistic attacks, against which Ukraine currently has no means to fully defend itself, with winter approaching, Russia will intensify attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. It will be difficult, but this year Ukraine is better prepared,” explains L. Linkevičius.
He assessed that this year electricity production in Ukraine is more decentralized, and notes that it is harder to disrupt the created backup systems and mobile power generation with a few isolated attacks.
Among other things, more spare parts have been accumulated and much more experience repairing energy facilities under combat conditions. Connections with European grids are also emerging and starting to operate.
“Russia, of course, is also better prepared than a couple of years ago, but recently more frequent, targeted strikes on oil refineries have shown both the system’s lack of resilience and the inefficiency of air defense.
Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, gas facilities and related infrastructure forces Russia to adapt, but it still lags behind everywhere in time. The isolation and cutoff of Crimea from supply chains clearly demonstrated the success of the new Ukrainian tactics and strategy,” assessed the former minister.
However, according to him, it cannot be ignored that for Russia this is not only or primarily an economic problem: “It is a social, political and psychological crisis.”
“Russian society was not prepared for such a crisis and certainly is not ready for it. The crisis in Crimea may be the key to the further collapse of the Neo empire. If Putin senses this with his exaggerated paranoid sensitivity, like Hitler, he will never show or admit it.
Whether the Russian elite will continue to watch as their country and the safe haven of their accumulated and seized capital slowly and deliberately go to suicide is also unclear,” concluded L. Linkevičius.
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