The biggest news of the first half of August is the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, released on August 12. For a short time, this document took attention away from geopolitics and dominated as the price direction driver for a while.
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The USDA report presents not very encouraging forecasts: corn yields are being reduced. The reason is the hot and dry July. Accordingly, the US corn ending stocks have also been reduced, as increasing exports reduce reserves.
Europe, also suffering from heat, shares similar sentiments. The record heatwave in the region directly affected the wheat harvest, which supports high prices on the MATIF exchange.
Hot weather in Europe forces corn growers to lower yield forecasts and increase import needs. However, on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, Brazil’s National Supply Company is raising the corn harvest forecast to a record 142.96 million tons.
Meanwhile, China is increasingly returning to the global market and stocking up. Moreover, the US-China trade agreement continues successfully, under which the latter country purchased as much as 1.5 million tons of new soybean harvest in a week.
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Geopolitical factors – again the most important
After the effect of the USDA report fades, geopolitical factors return to the stage. Ukraine continues to successfully attack Russian ports, other infrastructure, thus disrupting grain exports from this country.
In turn, Ukraine officially reduced export volumes by 12%. However, forecasts from different sources differ drastically. The country’s Ministry of Agriculture reduces total grain exports by 12%, with volumes possibly reaching about 38–40 million tons. However, in a pessimistic scenario, exports could fall by 54% and reach only 30 million tons.
2026-08-14 | 2026-07-31 | 2025-08-14 | |
MATIF wheat exchange price (September purchase price), Eur/t | 236.50 | 228.00 | 197.75 |
MATIF rapeseed exchange price (November purchase price), Eur/t | 545.50 | 513.00 | 475.75 |
Gas price (Dutch TTF), Eur/MWh | 61.424 | 59.071 | 32.141 |
Brent oil price, USD/barrel | 86.57 | 87.93 | 66.84 |
Euro / US dollar exchange rate | 1.15264 | 1.15290 | 1.16475 |
About AB Linas Agro
AB Linas Agro is one of the largest agribusiness companies, managing 9 companies in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and ensuring the entire value chain – from seed sales to grain procurement. The company belongs to AB Akola group.
