„Since June, Russia has had no naval fleet ships in the Mediterranean Sea. This is the first time in 10 years. The ratio of Alliance ships to Russian ships is 3 to 1, and not all of them carry out NATO tasks. Regarding submarines, this ratio is likely to be higher,” said a NATO official.
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According to him, these numbers are approximate, and the situation varies in each specific region. The official emphasized that the Russian fleet’s withdrawal from the Mediterranean Sea is related to its redeployment to other tasks, the main one being escorting “shadow fleet” ships carrying oil subject to sanctions.

According to NATO assessments, there have been 13 cases where “shadow fleet” tankers were detained, which forced Russia to redistribute ships to monitor this trade rather than deploy more of them.
“While we will not comment on specific observations related to Russian ships and their movements, I would like to note that we observe a trend where Russian naval ships escort commercial vessels through the Baltic Sea and other Euro-Atlantic region areas. This activity takes valuable days at sea from the Russian navy and complicates its ability to allocate naval forces to other missions,” commented Lieutenant Commander Tim Pitrack, MARCOM press and public affairs director.
He also noted that there is not a single territory around the Euro-Atlantic region where the Russian navy operates without allies monitoring its activities.
However, NATO representatives added that Russian military ships have not completely disappeared from European waters – the ships remain active in Northern European waters, indicating their redistribution rather than withdrawal, as they stay closer to home and tanker routes.
“They lack oil companies. They do not have the resources to deploy large military forces,” noted another Alliance interlocutor.
He described this as a “long-term” reduction in Russia’s potential and expressed confidence that it is unlikely to recover quickly.
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