On September 6, the residents of Saxony-Anhalt will vote, and on September 20 – those of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. The key question in all three elections is whether the far-right party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) will be able to come to power. Polls in the first two states show it holding a strong first position, and in the fairly liberal Berlin – third. Any of these achievements would be a record for this party.
The Saxony-Anhalt elections are especially important, where the party consistently garners more than 40% voter support. If it manages to replicate this result in the elections and at least two smaller parties fail to cross the 5% threshold, AfD would secure a single-party majority. Even this alone – a single-party majority – is very unusual in the German context, not to mention the party’s historic achievement.
AfD is not just any far-right party, of which there are many nowadays. It is exceptionally radical, and some of its regional branches, including Saxony-Anhalt’s AfD, are considered extremist by the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV, the main counterintelligence agency). The party is so radical that after the last European Parliament elections, other far-right parties, such as Viktor Orbán’s “Fidesz” or Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, refused to accept AfD into their newly formed far-right group “European Patriots.” These parties found AfD’s positions on migration, relations with Trump’s America, and especially Russia too radical, and it was believed that association with AfD could harm their national election prospects.
Thus, AfD was forced to create a new group in the European Parliament called “Sovereign Europe,” which also includes Petras Gražulis. I think his participation in this formation quite well illustrates the extremities we are dealing with.
Why is AfD rising?
The latest INSA national poll shows AfD rising to a record 29% support. For comparison, CDU is at the 21% mark, the Greens (“Die Grünen”) – 13%, SPD – 12%, the far left (“Die Linke”) – 11%, liberals (FDP) – 5%, Sahra Wagenknecht’s alliance (BSW) – 3%.
AfD is not a new party. It has been active in the country’s politics for more than 13 years, gradually growing and strengthening. However, the recent breakthrough in ratings, stable first place, and the possibility of coming to power for the first time in one of Germany’s states is something new and untested.
For many years, the country, long considered the engine of Europe’s economy, has stopped growing, and stagnation is felt in the labor market.
German experts identify three main but interconnected reasons for AfD’s rise: a general sense of decline, lack of reforms, and migration. Indeed, all this is strongly felt within Germany itself. For many years, the country, long considered the engine of Europe’s economy, has stopped growing, stagnation is felt in the labor market, but the state of infrastructure is particularly striking.
Due to difficulties in the railway network, trains are constantly delayed, road conditions are deteriorating, and not to mention issues like slow internet. For example, fiber-optic internet, which is no longer considered a breakthrough technology, reaches only 44% of the country’s population. For comparison, in Lithuania – 79%. This is just one example, but it well illustrates the scale of the problem.
Alongside this is the pressing issue of migration. In 2015, Germany admitted more than a million migrants from the Middle East to address the labor shortage in German industry and regain a growth trajectory. Although this was temporarily successful, uncontrolled migration flows also caused significant challenges. Increased crime, terrorist attacks, pressure on the country’s social and health systems contribute to the overall feeling that the country is living through times of depression and decline. This creates a fertile ground for anti-system sentiments and AfD’s growth.
Paradoxically, the current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz came to power promising broad reforms in defense, security, industry, social, and other everyday life areas, clearly declaring that his – more conservative than Angela Merkel – choice as Chancellor would stop AfD’s growth. Ironically, it was under F. Merz that AfD’s growth accelerated. Reform implementation is stagnating, the Chancellor and his party move from one scandal to another, especially due to disagreements within the grand coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats.
Meanwhile, AfD, as is typical for populist parties, spreads many easy promises and thus tries to give hope that life in the country can look different. The party, as its name suggests, creates an image of an alternative to the dominance of the old parties.
Interestingly, even AfD ideas such as remigration, which previously seemed completely unacceptable to German society, are now considered ordinary parts of political programs. Proponents of remigration propose starting a large-scale “voluntary” and forced return of non-German ethnic residents to their native countries. This would include not only those who are in Germany illegally but also those with temporary residence status or even citizenship but considered not integrated into German culture.
The terminology of these radical ideas is broad and very vague, so everyone can imagine the process as they see fit. However, the biggest problem is that remigration, as envisioned by AfD, would be not only practically unfeasible but also illegal. Nevertheless, AfD widely promotes it. For example, the party leader in Saxony-Anhalt recently promised that if victorious, deportations from this state would begin on the first day, despite the fact that the state government does not have the rights or tools to deport individuals from the country.
What to expect in Saxony-Anhalt?
As mentioned, AfD leads in Saxony-Anhalt with 43% support. Next are CDU – 23%, “Die Linke” – 13%, SPD – 7%, “Die Grünen” – 5%, BSW – 4%, FDP – 2%. If the final lineup is exactly like this, AfD would be close to a single-party majority. If “Die Grünen” and BSW do not cross the 5% threshold, it would be guaranteed. If both these parties surpass the 5% barrier, coalition partners would be needed or it would be necessary to work under difficult minority conditions.
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Proponents of remigration propose starting a large-scale “voluntary” and forced return of non-German ethnic residents to their native countries.
The most realistic partner that could allow AfD to form a government is BSW – a small economically left but socially conservative party that split from “Die Linke” a few years ago. BSW is gradually flirting with AfD. Although it does not promise a coalition yet, it promises to abstain in the third round of the state prime minister election, when AfD would have a simple majority.
Still, AfD looks even bolder into the future. Recently, the party leader in the neighboring state of Thuringia proposed to BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht to become the state’s prime minister with AfD support if her party backs AfD in Saxony-Anhalt. Such an agreement is very real, given both parties’ hostility to the main large parties.
AfD promises a lot to Saxony-Anhalt voters. The party intends to start a remigration campaign, reduce public broadcaster funding, stop the construction of new wind and solar power plants, renew gas imports from Russia, and end support to Ukraine. German families are promised more generous benefits, free kindergartens, and school meals. However, it is important to emphasize that some of these promises are beyond the state government’s competence, so the party will not be able to implement them.
How do other parties react?
Until now, the German political system has adhered to the so-called “Brandmauer” (firewall) principle, better known in Lithuania as the sanitary cordon, and refused any cooperation with AfD.
However, it is agreed that this principled position will be difficult to maintain if AfD achieves a single-party victory. Many voices, especially within the ruling CDU, question the effectiveness of the firewall. Their argument is that the firewall works, but AfD continues to rise. However, critics remind them that cooperation with radical right parties and their inclusion in coalitions in other countries has also failed. For example, in Austria, participation in coalitions did not reduce the popularity of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ).
Still, the biggest problem is that even the application of the firewall itself is much debated, but no real actions are taken. For example, even a third of AfD branches in federal states (5 out of 16) have been declared extremist by the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), yet no measures have been taken so far because it is feared that eliminating AfD branches from elections would cause even greater public anger.
There are also cases where information has emerged about AfD politicians or their associates spying for Russia or China. Again, although charges have been brought and cases are ongoing, no additional political pressure or legislative changes are being made.
Overall, there is a broad discussion about a possible ban on AfD. There is a legal basis due to some party positions contradicting the constitution, but currently, the party is too strong and entrenched in the political system for such actions to be possible.
What do German security services fear?
The biggest problem caused by AfD’s rise is felt by German security services. Naturally, AfD feels great hostility towards current security institutions and promises to reform them fundamentally if it comes to power. If it wins the Saxony-Anhalt elections, the party plans to restructure its state Office for the Protection of the Constitution (LfV). It will have the right to do so.
According to German media, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), the country’s main counterintelligence agency, doubts whether it will be able to share information with the AfD-controlled Saxony-Anhalt Ministry of the Interior. Accordingly, if the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution is restructured, BfV may stop sharing information with it, fearing information could reach Russia, China, and other third countries. This would significantly complicate terrorism and espionage prevention in this state and create a broader security crisis.
As the famous German lawyer and political scientist Karl Loewenstein said, to protect democracy, fire must be met with fire. One can only question whether igniting fire against AfD, with the firewall already collapsing, will be effective or if it is too late.
Although all the measures listed are being discussed, their implementation is difficult and often skirts the edge of legality. Therefore, it is hard to imagine any stricter decisions being made against AfD when it has already gained broad support, although no decisions were made when the party was still weak.
The German political field awaits an earthquake whose strength and consequences are very difficult to predict. Earthquakes usually cause a lot of damage, but one can learn from them and do everything to strengthen the foundation of one’s house so that no future tremors have a greater impact. Let us hope that Germans, albeit belatedly, will succeed this time.
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