He notes that massive Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure have already caused an acute gasoline shortage in Russia. According to him, this situation opens up an opportunity for the US president to increase pressure on the Kremlin. According to the expert, Washington could simultaneously support Ukrainian strikes on fuel infrastructure and limit gasoline imports to Russia, which would ultimately force the country’s president, Vladimir Putin, to agree to negotiations.
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“Sanctions on gasoline imports to Russia could bring peace to Ukraine – and Iran,” J. Webster emphasized.
According to the analyst, Ukraine’s drone campaign has fundamentally changed the situation on the economic confrontation front. Most residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg had practically not felt the consequences of the war for a long time. Now, he says, the gasoline shortage is changing this situation.
Moscow has already banned the export of aviation fuel, gasoline, and diesel, and hourly queues and even fights have formed at gas stations in various regions of the country. Russia is trying to compensate for the deficit by importing fuel from friendly states. Specifically, Belarus has increased gasoline supplies, while Kazakhstan is limiting exports due to its own perceived shortage.
According to J. Webster, India could play a key role in the further course of events. He notes that Russia has already approached Indian oil refineries, particularly the Vadinar refinery, co-owned by the Russian company Rosneft, with a request to supply gasoline.
The expert believes that the US should use diplomatic and economic means to persuade New Delhi to refuse such supplies and warn other potential exporters about possible financial sanctions.
“President Trump has the opportunity to quickly end two wars and potentially prevent a third,” the expert emphasized.
The author notes that, once peace is achieved, Ukraine could reorient its drone production capabilities to support Western allies. Specifically, Ukrainian drones could become an important element in deterring not only Iran but also other potential US adversaries, including China.
If D. Trump succeeds in preventing Russia from importing gasoline and thus increasing pressure on Russian consumers, he may be able to force V. Putin to the negotiating table.
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