In Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, characterized by unique electoral dynamics, a fierce battle for power is expected.
It is predicted that AfD will achieve significant gains in both states, two weeks after it secured nearly 44% of the vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt and decisively defeated F. Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which received 17% voter support.
The AfD triumph in this former communist East German state severely damaged F. Merz and fueled speculation that the 70-year-old leader, who came to power last May, might not complete his full four-year term as head of Europe’s largest economy.
As speculation about a possible leadership change intensifies, eight CDU state premiers united on Wednesday and jointly declared that Germany “now needs stability more than ever,” not “personnel discussions.”
F. Merz promised to revive Germany’s struggling economy, rearm the country to deter hostile Russia, and curb illegal immigration, aiming to calm voters’ fears and divert them from AfD.
However, AfD now leads in national polls, while F. Merz’s personal ratings are around 10 percent. Meanwhile, his coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is increasingly torn by internal conflicts.
“In Merz’s case, we are now witnessing the possibility of a breaking point – more of an implosion than a slow erosion of authority,” said Oliver Lembcke, a political scientist at Ruhr University Bochum.
“When election losses, poor personal ratings, and internal party doubts reinforce each other, political authority can collapse very quickly,” he said.
Two fierce electoral battles
In Sunday’s elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, F. Merz’s party is only an observer, as the main contest will be between the popular state premier Manuela Schwesig (SPD) and AfD.
According to the latest INSA poll, 37% intend to vote for AfD here, and 35% for SPD. Meanwhile, F. Merz’s CDU, with just seven percent, may dangerously approach the five percent threshold required to enter the state parliament.
If the CDU fails to cross this threshold, it would be a historic event, putting enormous pressure on F. Merz.
“If the CDU really does not cross the five percent barrier, I think it is quite likely that the party would pressure Mr. Merz to resign,” said Ursula Munch from the Tübingen Academy for Political Education.
Read more Lithuanian football’s golden equation: which favorite has the hardest path to triumph?
“If there is no such drastic break, I do not foresee this happening in the near future,” she added.
In Berlin, the ruling CDU is fiercely competing with the far-left Die Linke, which is popular among young people and promises drastic measures to address the severe housing crisis.
A CDU defeat in the capital would be another painful blow to F. Merz.
Meanwhile, AfD is expected to perform well in Berlin, although it is believed that in both states this party will remain out of power, as all other major parties have agreed not to cooperate with it.
“Great dissatisfaction”
Whoever wins the elections in these two states, AfD will undoubtedly again exploit voters’ dissatisfaction with the main parties.
“I hope they will vote for AfD here, I can tell you, because CDU has been in power for many years and has done nothing,” said 63-year-old retiree Manuela Schmidt from Berlin.
She pointed to impoverished pensioners collecting bottles on the streets.
“They worked for 45 years, receive about 500 (euros per month) pension, and at night go to collect bottles, but in the end, they are driven away by foreigners (…). This simply cannot continue,” M. Schmidt told the AFP news agency.
F. Merz, preparing for a tough Sunday evening, convened a CDU executive committee meeting to quickly discuss the election results and next steps.
He also shortened his agenda for the coming week, canceling plans to attend the United Nations General Assembly and sending the foreign minister to New York in his place.
“Dissatisfaction within the CDU camp is clearly high,” said U. Munch. However, she added that common sense might ultimately prevail to avoid strengthening AfD and one of its leaders, Alice Weidel.
“For the cool-headed CDU politicians, it must be clear that changing the CDU chairman and chancellor would not be in their own interests,” said U. Munch. “It would only fuel AfD’s dreams of ‘Chancellor Alice Weidel.'”
Read more Over the years, «Lost Shtetl» in Šeduva has been visited by over 100,000 people
