The current ruling coalition of right-wing parties, led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, will likely suffer a defeat because since the 2022 elections, when they garnered 49.6% of the votes, according to the latest representative polls, they would currently receive 7% fewer votes – 42.6%. The coalition of four opposition Centre-left parties, led by Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, has increased its support from 48.9% in 2022 to 55.2.
The Social Democratic Party itself, the largest political party in Sweden by support, has risen from 30.3% in 2022 to 33.9% of those wishing to vote for it currently.
The pendulum principle in Swedish elections continues to operate over the last few elections – the right replaces the left, then the left replaces the right, but the country’s problems remain the same – gang-related crimes, rising cost of living, and pressing issues of security, immigration control, and energy supply.
What is evident regarding the dismantling of Sweden’s traditional welfare state model is that this dismantling has stopped – Swedes again want to improve the situation in their social security, which, moreover, is already highly developed. The Social Democratic Party, more than any other (perhaps with the exception of the Left Party), is, in their opinion, best suited to do this.
What has the right-wing party coalition achieved in the past four years? Sometimes, even overdoing it, they restricted immigration, reduced taxes, brought the country into NATO, and tried to reduce gang crime. This coalition was supported by the nationalist Sweden Democrats, a party that has behaved sensationally and extremely in the 21st century, whose support has recently stabilized, but it remains the second political party in the country with 18.3% support.
It is important to note that the Liberal Party, the fourth of the right-wing parties, currently no longer passes the 4% electoral threshold to enter the Riksdag. What does all this say about the socio-economic model in the country? Although Sweden has reduced the functioning of its welfare state by about a third over the past 30 years, and in doing so, has somewhat retreated and approached the level of other Western European countries, or, by some indicators, even aligned with them, it continues to seek a kind of balance between social justice and economic efficiency, which has always surprised foreign observers and which, in these turbulent times, makes it worth continuing to observe and admire.
Although the immigration problem in Sweden has reached a truly significant level, and for this reason the country has been heavily criticized both abroad and domestically, the recent actions of the political parties allow for hope that this problem can also be managed. And not to leave everything to chance – which would be a good example for Lithuania as well.
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