The two-day convention is intended to convince supporters of the Republican leader that he is indeed participating in the November 3 elections, when Republicans may lose control of the House of Representatives and will have to fight to maintain control of the Senate.
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“So what I really want you to do: please pretend that I am on the ballot,” Trump said recently at a rally in South Carolina. “Just come and vote. It’s very important.”
The US election results monitoring website Decision Desk HQ predicts that Democrats will win the fight for the House of Representatives and will have 230 seats, while Republicans will have 205 seats. For the Senate, it is indicated that Democrats should win 51 seats, and Republicans 49. The Senate forecast was adjusted as Republican prospects continue to worsen – previously a 50:50 ratio was predicted.
Trump, whose rating, according to the latest polls, is only 33%, will speak both evenings at the convention arena, the American Airlines Center.
His challenge is to rally voters personally loyal to him without alienating independent voters who are already disappointed with his presidency due to inflation, gas prices exceeding $4 (2.5 euros) per gallon (3.785 l), and the ongoing war with Iran.
“Many of Trump’s supporters only vote when he is on the ballot,” Matthew Green, a political professor at the American Catholic University, told AFP news agency.
“They are not hardcore Republican voters; they are hardcore Trump voters. So, in this respect, it makes sense to put Trump forward, hoping those people will come out to vote in November,” he said.
However, Green was skeptical that asking supporters to imagine Trump on their ballots would help offset his generally weak positions.
“When you have just over 30% or about 35%, that traditionally associates with very bad midterm elections for your party,” he said about 80-year-old Trump’s ratings.
Trump’s show
The meeting starting in Dallas is the first Republican national convention held specifically for midterm elections, although Democrats tried to hold similar meetings in the 1980s and 1990s.
No candidates will be nominated, no official party business is planned.
Instead, organizers planned what could be called a two-evening televised rally to promote Trump’s achievements and Republican candidates.
More than 100 members and candidates of the House of Representatives are expected to participate; both evenings are scheduled to have more than 50 speakers or presentations.
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Trump will deliver the main speech on Wednesday and return for Thursday’s finale after Vice President J. D. Vance’s speech. The program also includes speeches by government members, Congressional leaders, and candidates in closely watched House and Senate elections.
Republicans plan to emphasize tax cuts, immigration control, manufacturing, and prescription drug prices, while portraying Democrats as dangerously left-leaning politically.
However, some Republicans in private conversations hint that they hope Trump will stick to this script rather than veer into personal grievances and off-topic remarks, as often happens during his appearances.
Stay home
Not everyone is coming.
Many lawmakers involved in tough election races have decided that with less than two months until voting day, it is better to spend time at campaign events at home.
Green said vulnerable Republicans have two reasons to keep their distance: Trump’s unpopularity and the cost of losing precious days in their districts.
“If you are a Republican running in a ‘swing’ district, you probably want to distance yourself from Trump as much as possible,” he said.
House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged the dilemma, saying some members need to stay home because this is a “critical time” just before early voting ramps up nationwide.
Participating Republicans were also asked to pay at least $25,000 (21,500 euros) for tickets and accommodation.
The event is also a huge fundraising opportunity – a roundtable discussion with Trump costs $250,000 (215,000 euros) per person, and photos with the president are offered for $88,600 (76,300 euros).
And even Trump’s promised national television broadcast faces an unusually tough competitor: both convention evenings coincide with the National Football League (NFL) season opening games.
“Spending three or four days outside your district to go to a convention is not a good way to spend time if you are facing a tough (re-election) fight,” Green added.
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