I’ve mentioned more than once that a serious problem for the EU is primarily the lack of a strategic development direction and its content, i.e. the EU itself is harmed one way or another by the unwillingness or inability to take an active position, offering candidate countries and their citizens more than expected or written “on paper,” more than announced in bureaucratic accession procedures. Ignoring this problem deepens the negative consequences, and there are more than enough warning signs.
We observe, but no longer are surprised, that the Kremlin invests hundreds of millions not only in its war machine in Ukraine. The Putin regime, as confirmed by intelligence services, is increasing investments by uniting radical political forces across Europe. Some commentators rightly note: after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet empire, new borders are now actively rising, perhaps still hard for some Europeans to see.
The foundations of this wall are clearly being strengthened. This is shown even by the latest example from this weekend, when the radical pro-Kremlin force “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) achieved a crushing victory in eastern Germany, in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. By the way, this is just a couple of hundred kilometers from the capital Berlin (you won’t find this important detail in media headlines). How much and how quickly will this bacillus spread further?
Returning to the NO vote in the Icelandic referendum, it is clear that it halted EU expansion to the West. It is worth elaborating a bit more on the Icelandic example, as the referendum could quite easily have become a success story for the entire EU.
Almost 53% voted against renewed negotiations for EU accession, 47% voted “for.” These camps were separated by just a few percentage points, somewhat reminiscent of the “Brexit” fiasco.
The Icelandic NO referendum remains, one could say, with a strong fishy smell. The decisive votes came from voters in Iceland’s provinces, where the fishing and fish processing industry dominates. Iceland records up to 1.4 million tons of fish catch per year, while the entire EU’s annual catch quota is up to 3.6 million tons. The European Commission offered nothing to the Icelanders before the referendum, although some clarity on this issue was especially awaited.
Icelanders’ skepticism towards the EU was possibly influenced by the 2008–2009 banking crisis, when the country’s banking sector collapsed, losses exceeded the country’s GDP several times, and after the crisis, disputes with the UK and Dutch governments dragged on, which after the “Icesave” collapse demanded compensation for their citizens’ lost billion-euro deposits.
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Conflicts and disputes were resolved but left a bitter taste for Icelanders due to the huge external pressure experienced. The camp opposing renewed negotiations with the EU in the referendum also used this card.
Thus, greater national security and prospects for solving issues from within the EU did not become a decisive argument for Icelanders, even recalling President Trump’s threats to Greenland, which he publicly confused by mentioning the name of Iceland instead.
Yes, Iceland, even without voting rights, remains deeply integrated into various EU policy sectors. Iceland is guaranteed the status of a key EU partner, just without a real membership ticket in the Community.
Nevertheless, the EU must draw conclusions and move out of its current passive position, as this threatens the entire EU expansion to the East, possibly even more than to the West.
Citizens of Moldova and Ukraine, who see their future in Europe, expect a quick breakthrough and are certainly not prepared to wait for five or ten years. If stagnation occurs here as well, the Kremlin will quickly invest even more in the modern war machine and the means serving it: increasing support for radicals and, through their hands, possibly creating new pseudo-referendums and other webs.
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