The visit of Vladimir Putin’s loyal ally to Russia takes place a few days after A. Lukashenko unexpectedly ordered a check of the combat readiness of Belarusian forces and information leaked about the construction of a military base and access roads right on the border with Ukraine.
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Among other things, the trip was organized after an unusual visit by a high-ranking US official, who, according to the media, was sent to Russia by President Donald Trump himself, to Moscow earlier this week.
The official Minsk version of the urgent meeting is that the Belarusian leader will hold talks with the Kremlin host, during which the “main directions of bilateral cooperation, relevant regional and international agenda issues, as well as security assurance” will allegedly be discussed.
It was reported that A. Lukashenko plans to meet with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, with whom he is expected to discuss “the development of trade, economic and investment cooperation” and “the implementation of joint cooperation projects.”
However, as V. Denisenka notes, in reality, A. Lukashenko’s visit to Moscow is related to the war.
“But not the real one, rather primarily informational. Lukashenko will not agree to allow the use of his territory for an attack against Ukraine or the Baltic states as long as he is supported by China. And China supports him,” the analyst writes in an opinion article for the news portal “Unian.”
However, considering the information published by Western media that J. Ratcliffe’s visit was related to a warning to Russia about a possible escalation against NATO, specifically the Baltic states, V. Denisenka believes this visit takes on new shades.
“After this visit, a new wave of conspiracy theories will arise, promoted by the Russians, and Western and Ukrainian media will gladly spread them, so the level of anxiety will sharply increase, all this happening against the backdrop of Russian aircraft incursions into NATO countries’ territory and strikes on ships in Romanian territorial waters.
The thing is, Putin needs hysteria in Europe, but it is much more important for him that US President Donald Trump, who has already established contact (Ratcliffe’s visit is that contact), returns to the ‘Anchorage-2 spirit’,” wrote the political scientist.
In his assessment, this entire informational-kinetic operation has its time limits – the US elections.
“Attacking before the US elections means condemning Trump, because then he will lose seats in both the Congress and the Senate. Therefore, on the one hand, Trump has time to rename lakes and oceans, but at the same time, he will be forced to pay attention to the development of this hybrid operation, which will inevitably affect the course of the elections,” V. Denisenka believes.
According to him, the sudden intensification of shelling and terror against Kyiv is part of this operation.
“It is especially important for Putin to strongly undermine the emotional and psychological state of the Ukrainian population and try to break their will to resist. At the same time, he will try to negotiate that the cessation of shelling be linked to maximum concessions. Of course, life, as always, will bring its corrections. But it seems that this is Russia’s ‘Plan A’ for the next couple of months,” the analyst concluded.
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Consciously sowing fear
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) agree that the CIA chief’s visit to Moscow indicates that Russia may be preparing for an attack against the Alliance in the near future.
However, they say it is unlikely that Russia would be able to launch a large-scale invasion of any NATO country.
Although US intelligence considers a possible Russian attack a “matter of the next few years,” the nature of J. Ratcliffe’s trip reveals concern about a much nearer future.
Analysts noted that this visit differs from the one made during President Joe Biden’s time by former intelligence chief William Burns, who tried to dissuade the Kremlin from attacking Ukraine.
“At that time, Russia was already actively increasing its military presence on the border with Ukraine. Currently, there is no evidence that Russia is doing anything similar in the border zone with the Baltic countries,” the report emphasizes.
Nevertheless, experts believe Russia may carry out air strikes against the Baltic states or conduct a limited ground invasion using small forces.
“Such operations do not require Russia to concentrate a large contingent, as was the case in 2021. However, it is not yet known whether Putin has approved the execution of such an operation,” the analysts highlighted.
They also pointed out that Russia has recently denied in every way the possibility of an attack against NATO countries. However, according to the report, these statements may be part of a cognitive war waged by the Russians, rather than the Kremlin’s true position. It is worth remembering that Moscow also actively denied its plans to attack Ukraine at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022.
“The Kremlin may deliberately create ambiguity about its intentions to start any attack against NATO. This allows them to sow fear and paralyze the Alliance’s ability to make decisions about self-defense. Moreover, it also affects the continuation of arms supplies to Ukraine,” the experts noted.
Analysts observe that NATO still cannot agree on a response to a possible Russian attack. And the Kremlin, in their assessment, is likely to exploit this by choosing a strategy that it believes will reduce the Alliance’s response to a minimum.
“If this happens, Putin will achieve one of his main strategic goals – to break trust in NATO,” the report concludes.
