The publication notes that after the start of Russia’s large-scale invasion, the Danube became one of the main alternative routes for Ukrainian grain exports, as the Black Sea became dangerous. However, this summer the situation changed: in Romania, due to the lowered water level, shipping and electricity production experienced serious disruptions.
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At the same time, Russia intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports around Odesa. According to data presented in the publication, in July alone there were 35 attacks on ships in the ports, 22 attacks on ships at sea, and 67 strikes on port infrastructure.
On August 9, Russian forces also struck a bridge near Mayaky, connecting the Odesa region with routes to Moldova and Romania. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) speculated that the strike aimed to disrupt the land route used due to problems with maritime exports.
Ukrainian grain transportation
Previously, Ukraine had repeatedly developed backup route alternatives. With the Black Sea ports blocked, grain began to be transported by rail, road transport, barges, and through the Danube ports of Izmail and Reni. However, as the author explains, the current situation reveals the weakness of such a system: alternative routes also depend on weather conditions and can simultaneously become targets of Russian strikes.
This problem, according to the publication’s author, is effectively acknowledged by Russia as well. On August 10, Anatoly Tikhonov, head of the International Agribusiness and Food Security Center of the Russian National Academy of Economic Sciences, published an article via the state agency TASS.
He predicted an increase in European demand for Ukrainian grain, while forecasting a decrease in Ukraine’s export capabilities. In such a situation, the publication writes, Russia seeks to exploit food shortages for its own interests. According to him, Russia “should take advantage of this opportunity.”
Importance for energy
Similar dependency is observed in energy. Russian attacks destroyed a significant portion of Ukraine’s generating capacity, forcing the country to increase electricity imports from Europe. However, Europe’s energy system also depends on water resources. Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant was forced to significantly reduce output due to the low Danube water level, and Romania faced a similar problem at the Cernavodă nuclear power plant. On August 11, the operator Nuclearelectrica warned that the country might be forced to shut down the last operating reactor.
Drought also causes fires and water problems within Ukraine itself. In 2024, about 965 thousand hectares burned in the country – more than twice as much as in the entire European Union territory. Heat and drought exacerbate the effects of fires caused by shelling, while mines and destroyed infrastructure complicate the work of rescuers.
“Russia has for years tried to reduce the number of problems Ukraine can bear. A hotter, drier, and more explosive Europe can reduce them even further. Putin cannot control these forces, but can still benefit from them,” the publication states.
