On Thursday evening, the MMVB index fell to 2018 points, but ended the main trading session slightly higher – at the level of 2024 points, i.e. 4.24% lower than the closing level the previous day.
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According to calculations by „RBK Investiciji“, this is the largest daily drop since September 26, 2022, when the index lost 7.49%.
After the main session ended, the decline continued. At 20:07 Moscow time, the index fell 4.72% to 2005.1 points. This is the lowest level since October 2022. For comparison, in the fall of 2021, the index exceeded 4000 points.
„The market continues to fall due to geopolitical risks, expected sanctions, and dividend payment deadlines… The market is pressured by rising fuel prices, which encourages tightening monetary policy,“ commented „Finama“ analyst Yegor Vershinin.
New sanction packages are currently being considered both in Europe (the 21st package) and the USA.
Gasoline market crisis
Announcing a reduction in the interest rate by only 25 basis points, the Russian central bank warned that its decision was influenced, among other things, by the situation in the fuel market. Since then, it has only worsened, writes the portal „Agentstvo“.
According to „Rosstat“ data, over the past week, the price of gasoline increased by 2.3%, and diesel by 3.2%. In seven regions, the price of AI-95 already exceeds 100 rubles.
On Tuesday, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Aleksey Zabotnik stated that the Central Bank cannot „turn a blind eye“ to fuel prices: „When making decisions on the interest rate, it is also important to consider the extent to which the situation in the fuel market will affect citizens’ and businesses’ concerns about future inflation.“
On Wednesday, the Central Bank published the results of an analyst survey on its website. From them, it is clear that experts adjusted the forecast for the main interest rate upwards – from 14.1% to 14.5%. Currently, it is 14.25%. The forecast for next year was also revised – 12.2% instead of 10.6%. This indicates that this year the reduction of the main interest rate may stop, and next year it will decrease more slowly than previously expected.
The economic situation in Russia is worsening
Meanwhile, the economic situation is deteriorating, writes the portal „Agentstvo“. In the same survey, the Central Bank lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2026–2027 to 0.6% (instead of 0.7%) and 1.3% (instead of 1.5%), respectively.
Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev believes that the stock market collapse is caused by the „crazy Kremlin economic policy“ in general and asset confiscation in particular.
„We have seen that asset redistribution later leads to asset realization at a price much lower than the market price – an example can be the case of „Yuzhuralzoloto“: it was sold for the fourth time at half the price, and this is a good benchmark for how much the liquid parts of Russian assets are now worth in total, when there is no external demand,“ said V. Inozemtsev.
He believes that the stock market decline may continue to a 30% correction from this year’s highs, i.e. to 1830–1860 points. „I wish all investors not to be discouraged!“, V. Inozemtsev wished.
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