Worries about the nuclear weapons ban: already painting the darkest scenario

Worries about the nuclear weapons ban: already painting the darkest scenario

Already Scaring with Explosions

On a Facebook page on July 8, it was announced that on that day “the Seimas approved the abolition of the ban on deploying nuclear weapons” – allegedly after the first reading, 89 parliamentarians voted in favor of the proposal to abolish the article of the Constitution prohibiting the deployment of nuclear weapons on Lithuanian territory.

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Then the Speaker of the Seimas, Juozas Olekas, was quoted saying that the current ban no longer corresponds to the current security situation and limits Lithuania’s ability to use the full NATO nuclear deterrence potential.


Belgium, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, and Germany are already participating in NATO’s nuclear sharing program.

Finally, attention was drawn to the fact that “opponents of this initiative claim that such a matter should be decided by referendum.” The post is illustrated with an AI-generated photo showing President Gitanas Nausėda pressing a red button on his forehead, with a nuclear explosion mushroom cloud behind him.

This image turns a relatively neutral post into a frightening warning about what allegedly awaits after this decision, although no concrete plans for weapon deployment are mentioned so far.

Moreover, nothing has been decided yet – the Seimas only decided to consider the proposal to remove the provision on the nuclear weapon ban from the Constitution. It will take more than one vote to eliminate it.

A week earlier, a much sharper post appeared on the same page, expressing surprise at what seemed to be contradictory comments from Defense Minister Robert Kaunas about not deploying nuclear weapons and still needing to change the Constitution: “At first – ‘we will not deploy.’ Then – ‘the Constitution needs to be changed.'”

Screenshot from Facebook/Considering the abandonment of the nuclear weapon ban, the internet is already threatening with the worst consequences

However, the post does not explain that the amendment to the country’s main law is not only related to the possession of nuclear weapons in our country.

Some other Facebook users reacted much more sharply to the alleged plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Lithuania even before the Seimas vote.

Another internet user wondered: “If talks with the US are really happening, a very specific question arises: ‘Where exactly would such a weapon be planned to be deployed in Lithuania?’ <…>

Therefore, it is natural to ask whether the necessary infrastructure is already being planned. Some raise the question of whether such plans could also be related to the Kapčiamiestis region.”

6 Countries Would Already Accept Nuclear Weapons

This is how social media users reacted to reports that the US intends to deploy nuclear weapons in new European countries. As reported in early June by the British daily Financial Times (FT), the Americans are considering whether to deploy nuclear weapons in additional NATO countries in Europe. This is allegedly intended to reassure allies that reduced conventional military support will not reduce security guarantees.

Six allies – Belgium, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, and Germany – are already participating in NATO’s nuclear sharing program. They are approved to receive US dual-capable aircraft (DCA) and “forward-deployed” atomic bombs. They are guarded by the US, and Washington retains the sole authority to use them.

Changes would potentially allow more countries to accept so-called DCAs, which can deliver nuclear strikes.

NATO / Thomas Trutschel / picture alliance / AA/photothek.de

Negotiations, which are very confidential and may not lead to any changes, are taking place in Europe amid growing concerns about US President Donald Trump’s moves to withdraw American troops and key weapons systems from the continent.

Also read: The US is considering deploying nuclear weapons in new European countries – the Baltic states are also mentioned

According to FT, the Alliance’s eastern flank countries, including Poland and some Baltic states, are interested in the possible establishment of DCA bases. The greatest interest allegedly came from allies closest to the Russian border.

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Judging by these reports, talks are currently only at the negotiation level. This was confirmed by R. Kaunas, but according to him, US nuclear weapons in Lithuania could only be deployed in times of crisis or war.

Lukas Balandis / BNS photo/Robert Kaunas

“In peacetime, no one talks about deploying any weapons of mass destruction in Lithuania,” the Brussels publication Politico quoted him.

The Ban Remains in Agreements

The country’s main law Article 137 states: “Weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases may not be present on the territory of the Republic of Lithuania.”

However, top officials agreed in early July that this provision should be abandoned. The next day, an amendment, justified by the changed geopolitical environment and the desire to give Lithuania the opportunity, in the event of a threat or aggression, to use the full NATO deterrence potential, was registered in the parliament’s secretariat.

The ban on deploying weapons of mass destruction in Lithuania, as the amendment’s authors reminded, was adopted after the restoration of Independence. At that time, Russian military forces were still in Lithuania, and one of the state’s main tasks was to ensure the complete withdrawal of the occupying army, establish state sovereignty, and prevent any forced inclusion in post-Soviet Eastern alliances.

Since the adoption of the Constitution, the security environment, the country’s international position, and national security measures have fundamentally changed, noted the explanatory note to the amendment.

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Lithuania is a NATO member participating in the collective defense system. Our country’s security is now inseparable from NATO’s collective defense and deterrence system, based on the totality of all Alliance capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, which is one of the essential parts of the Alliance’s collective defense architecture.

According to parliamentarians, the European security situation has significantly deteriorated in recent years. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the escalation of nuclear rhetoric, modernization of nuclear capabilities, and strengthening of military infrastructure in Lithuania’s neighborhood allegedly make it necessary to ensure that our country’s ability to fully participate in NATO’s deterrence system is not limited.

Based on the current text of the Constitution, nuclear weapons could not be present on Lithuanian territory even if such a measure were considered necessary as part of NATO’s deterrence system and required for the defense of our country and allies.

Lithuania, according to the amendment’s authors, is a participant in international treaties regulating weapons of mass destruction, so the removal of the ban would not change the country’s international obligations in the areas of nuclear, chemical, bacteriological, and toxic weapons non-proliferation, prohibition, and control.

Something Else Planned in Kapčiamiestis

Neither the text of the constitutional amendment nor the explanatory note mentions Kapčiamiestis or that nuclear weapons will definitely be deployed in Lithuania; no specific locations are mentioned.

The Kapčiamiestis training ground is needed for the newly formed national division and allies to train. Its territory should cover about 14.6 thousand hectares.

Also read: The constitutional amendment reminded of Kapčiamiestis: will nuclear weapons really be there?

At one time, 3.5-4 thousand of our country’s and NATO allies’ soldiers could train here. Larger exercises at the training ground would take place about five times a year and last up to ten days, smaller-scale ones would be held continuously.

15min verdict: lacks context. The desire to abandon the ban on deploying weapons of mass destruction is due to the changed geopolitical environment and is unrelated to the planned training ground in Kapčiamiestis.

The publication was prepared by 15min in cooperation with Meta, aiming to stop the spread of misleading news on social media. More about the program and its rules – here.

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