According to Western intelligence agencies, these exercises focused mainly on practical aspects of the upcoming draft, including how to accommodate mobilized people, supply them with food and weapons. According to the publication’s sources, similar events are taking place in other regions of Russia.
Read more Vilius Gaubas found out his opponents in the US Open qualifiers
The Kremlin has not yet made a decision on a new large-scale mobilization. Western officials believe that Moscow is unlikely to make such a decision before the parliamentary elections at the end of September. However, Vladimir Putin’s desire to capture the entire Donbas territory, despite the slow advance of the Russian army and heavy losses, may force the Kremlin to change its position.
In recent months, it has become increasingly difficult for Russia, as the publication notes, to attract enough new soldiers to replace the dead and wounded. According to US and European officials, the shortage of soldiers may leave V. Putin with few other options than a new large-scale draft.
The previous wave of mobilization, announced by V. Putin in September 2022, caused huge chaos in Russia. Hundreds of thousands of men fled the country, leading to mass purchases of plane tickets, and queues lasting several hours formed at the borders with Georgia and Kazakhstan.
Rumors about a new mobilization are already causing concern among Russians. Some men are looking for ways to leave the country, while wealthier citizens are already looking for places where they could wait out a possible draft. According to The Wall Street Journal, due to such expectations, real estate prices in Georgia and Armenia have already started to rise. Meanwhile, the Georgian authorities denied the claims of the Russian customs service that a record number of people—more than 20,000—crossed the border through the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in one day.
Michael Kofman, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment, believes that even a new mobilization will not help V. Putin capture Donbas this year.
“I don’t think it will be a decisive factor for Russia, and in fact, it is already too late for that this year, but it could become a factor in 2027,” he said.
A large-scale draft would also put additional pressure on the Russian economy.
“Russia will further mortgage its future for military gains,” notes Alexander Kolyandr, an expert at Eurasia Group.
Read more «Žalgiris» defeated Telšiai’s «Džiugas» with Ukrainian goals
According to him, the state will have to feed, accommodate, arm new soldiers, and pay them salaries, while removing them from the labor market, which is already short of workers.
At the same time, the Kremlin may try to avoid a repeat of the 2022 panic. Russia has already created a database of men of conscription age and started sending them notifications to report to military commissariats. According to analyst Alexei Yusupov, the authorities may gradually increase the number of such drafts.
“It is easier for them to slowly boil the frog, calling people in small groups,” he noted.
According to the expert, this method would allow the Kremlin to avoid a sudden shock similar to the events of 2022, while gradually increasing the size of the Russian army.
We remind that Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia plans to send 300,000 newly mobilized soldiers to offensive operations, especially in Donbas and possibly northern territories, but the main goal remains the capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. He emphasized that V. Putin’s planned deadlines are unrealistic, as it is in the Donetsk region that the Russians suffer the greatest losses—up to 80% of all their losses.
We also reported that V. Putin believes Russia can hold out longer in the war than Ukraine. Meanwhile, Bloomberg columnist Max Hastings believes that Ukraine is currently in a better position than ever since 2022, so the most likely scenario is the continuation of the war without a change in the Kremlin’s position.
