According to the newspaper’s interlocutors, Russia has carried out a series of sabotage attacks against weapons factories in Europe, using plausible deniability.
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For this purpose, the Kremlin recruits members of local criminal groups and carefully plans attacks so that they do not cross the thin line that could prompt NATO member states to activate Article 5, which provides for collective defense.
Last week, Latvia detained three of its citizens suspected of setting fire to a drone factory in neighboring Estonia. The building, belonging to the Tallinn company “Milrem Robotics,” which supplies weapons to Ukraine, was set on fire on the night of August 15.
After the incident, Estonian Prime Minister Kristens Michals stated that investigators are determining whether it was a sabotage act and whether Russia was involved.
This arson fits into a broader pattern of sabotage against Ukraine’s military supply chains on NATO territory, some cases of which have been confirmed.
“In recent years, Russia has accelerated its destabilization campaigns against allies by conducting cyberattacks, assassination attempts, and sabotage acts,” a NATO official told The Telegraph.
Other officials noted that the Kremlin’s hybrid war aims to increase tension among NATO allies and halt support for Ukraine.
The article also recalls that after Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, a series of unexplained attacks were recorded across Europe.
Earlier this year, a fire almost completely destroyed a factory in the Czech Republic that produced drones and thermal imaging devices for Ukraine. Four suspects were detained during the investigation into Russian involvement.
Lithuania also charged six individuals with attempting to set fire to a factory supplying radio wave readers to Kyiv.
On August 10, a powerful explosion rocked the “EMKO” factory – one of the largest private weapons manufacturers in Bulgaria, producing 155-millimeter artillery shells for Ukraine. The fire initially broke out in a truck parked near the warehouse premises.
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Three days later, a similar explosion occurred at the “KNDS Ammo Italy” ammunition factory on the outskirts of Rome, Italy. At that time, the cause was reported as a fire in the gunpowder processing department, the cause of which remains unknown.
The Telegraph writes that Italian and Bulgarian officials tried to downplay any possible Russian connection to these incidents, and Russia very rarely leaves any evidence that would directly link these attacks to Moscow.
How Russia’s sabotage apparatus works
The publication recalled a Western intelligence assessment according to which Russian military intelligence (GRU) agents establish contacts with informants within the groups themselves, who act as intermediaries in the target country.
“Based on our experience, we do not see GRU officers physically coming here, to our country. No, they stay in Russia, where it is safe. They do not risk their operational and physical security,” Normunds Mežvits, head of Latvia’s State Security Service, said in an interview with The Telegraph last March.
It is noted that Russian GRU agents use online messaging apps, such as Telegram, to recruit members of criminal groups. These people are used as intermediaries who give tasks to the criminals they have recruited, and the latter often do not even know they are working for the Russians and receive payment in cryptocurrency.
The Telegraph assesses that the secretive nature of Kremlin-ordered attacks is seen as a deliberate attempt to sow discord among NATO allies.
Eastern NATO member states, such as Poland and the Baltic countries, speak much more openly about exposing Russian aggression in Europe, and Latvia’s State Security Service, although not directly accusing Russia, confirmed that three suspects in the arson in Estonia were detained under powers applied to combat criminals who “provide assistance to a foreign state in actions directed against another state.”
Meanwhile, Western countries such as Italy and Germany often do not want to attribute these incidents to Moscow, fearing escalation.
“It is precisely this disagreement among Western allies that the Kremlin seeks to exploit,” The Telegraph noted.
“With each attack that goes unpunished, the Russians gather valuable intelligence on how far they can push NATO’s boundaries,” the article concludes.
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