One of V. Putin’s old associates noted that after the visit of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director John Ratcliffe to Moscow last week, the Russian president likely saw it as a sign of Washington’s weakening.
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According to the source, this is exactly how he interpreted the 2021 visit of William Burns, the CIA director during Joe Biden’s term, during which he tried to deter V. Putin from invading Ukraine.
“No one can know what is going on in Putin’s head. However, the reasons for the escalation of the war, as well as the decision to invade itself, are internal in nature. His main goal has always been to preserve his power and, ultimately, his life,” the article states.
The Emperor’s New Clothes?
One of the Kremlin’s main problems is the loss of silent public support for the war. The Economist noted that trust in television propaganda is declining, and young people are increasingly posting calls to end the war on social networks. Among other things, V. Putin’s ratings have been falling for several months in a row.
It is noted that pessimistic moods have also gripped the Russian elite.
The Economist’s interlocutor said that the main problem is not so much the economy or the lack of military victories, but the wasted time: whatever the outcome, almost five years of war is a failure.
A representative of the so-called Russian elite interviewed by journalists admitted that the feeling that the emperor has no clothes is growing stronger.
And although none of Russia’s economic or political problems are fatal to V. Putin, he is still controlled by the logic of his regime: never show weakness.
“The Russian system is characterized by a high degree of tolerance for violence but does not grant forgiveness for failures. Probably (Putin) thinks that ending the war without achieving even the minimal goal – occupying the entire Donbas – would pose a physical danger to him,” the publication states.
According to a close source, at some point during the war, V. Putin told some of his friends: “They will hang me.”
However, continuing the war in its current form is also not a solution – it simply wastes economic resources and political capital, another representative of the Russian elite pointed out.
All this may make escalation attractive to V. Putin, but so far it is unclear how he will act, The Economist highlighted.
Russia is likely to strengthen hybrid warfare and sabotage actions against Ukraine’s allies, as well as attack supply routes from Europe to Ukraine. Western intelligence agencies fear that Russia may attack factories in Europe producing components for Ukraine’s military needs.
Meanwhile, for Ukraine, escalation means an expansion of the actions Russia is already carrying out. On August 30, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced readiness to carry out a massive strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Regarding the ground war, Russian sources say that V. Putin intends to throw another 300–400 thousand people into the “meat grinder.”
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