On Thursday, the Russian agricultural supervision service announced temporary restrictions on the import of fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, greens, and strawberries from Armenia. The ban will take effect on Saturday. The ban will apply both to products grown in Armenia and those merely transported through the country.
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The institution justified the ban by citing supply violations and the alleged need to ensure Russia’s phytosanitary well-being. “Rosselkhoznadzor” also stated that the Armenian authorities did not take measures regarding previously identified violations.
These restrictions will add to the previously imposed ban on importing flowers from Armenia, mineral water “Jermuk,” as well as brandies and wines from three Armenian producers.
The scale of the trade war
Since the mid-2000s, Russia has been continuously involved in trade wars with its neighbors. One of the peaks of such confrontation was the events of the second decade. After Viktor Yanukovych lost power, Ukraine faced numerous embargoes, and the annexation of Crimea led to large-scale trade restrictions with the EU.
At the end of 2015, Moscow imposed food restrictions in response to Turkey shooting down a Russian Su-24 aircraft. At that time, the import of 17 categories of goods was banned, including Turkish vegetables, fruits, and meat products. Sales of tours and charter flights to Turkey were also prohibited.
After that, Russia established other trade restrictions, especially with Belarus. In February 2024, Moscow restricted banana imports from Ecuador after that country decided to hand over old weapons to the US, which Washington intended to send to Ukraine.
However, the measures introduced today are the strictest since the fall of 2015, reports “Agentstvo”.
How effective are trade wars
At that time, Turkey lost billions of dollars due to Russian restrictions – in December 2015, Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek estimated losses at 9 billion USD. By the summer of 2016, Moscow managed to get Recep Erdoğan to publicly apologize to Vladimir Putin, after which the restrictions began to be lifted.
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Restrictions on Ecuador were lifted the same month they were introduced. Shortly after, Ecuador refused to transfer weapons to Ukraine.
How serious a blow is dealt to Armenia
Armenia exports a large share of the products subject to restrictions to Russia. According to summer 2024 data, 85.7% of the country’s grown fruits and vegetables were supplied to Russia.
Russia also accounted for as much as 80% of Armenia’s brandy exports in 2024. In the flower business, this share may be even higher – more than 90%.
The consequences of these restrictions for Armenia’s economy may not be critical, says Ivan Karpenka, author of the Telegram channel about Armenia’s economy “Vaša liubimaja ekonomičeskaja redakcija”. Agriculture accounts for 7% of the country’s GDP, and only 12% of all vegetables grown in the country are exported. Alcohol producers affected by the restrictions are small companies; flower bans are introduced regularly, he added.
“The most important thing here is how long these bans will last. If… the restrictions are lifted the day after tomorrow, no one will notice anything… But if this restriction continues until the end of autumn, it will be a bit harder,” said I. Karpenka.
All because of elections in Armenia
The restrictions are introduced just before the parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia in early June. During the elections, Moscow apparently wants to strengthen the positions of the pro-Russian opposition, including Samvel Karapetyan, a political scientist who wished to remain anonymous told the portal “Agentstvo”.
However, it is unlikely that Moscow will “influence the elections,” the expert believes. Moreover, Russia’s actions may help N. Pashinyan; such behavior further alienates the country’s residents from Moscow.
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