Ukrainians destroyed all logistics, communications, bridges – leaving only the Kerch Bridge so that those willing and still able would have the opportunity to evacuate. Staying in Crimea, where electricity is turned on for 4 hours a day, fuel is not sold, food products and water are not supplied – makes little sense. Talking about tourism as a source of business is no longer meaningful. The only concern is survival.
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Vladimir Putin’s forces are hopelessly and long stuck on the front. No breakthrough is expected in the near future. “Pushing” along the contact line, sacrificing more than 1000 of their soldiers daily, is no strategy. To even theoretically hope for something more, to at least compensate for the more than 30 thousand soldiers lost per month, a general mobilization is simply necessary.
The Kremlin hesitates not only because it is unpopular but also because it is simply dangerous. People, “ordinary citizens who don’t care about politics,” suddenly began to feel the scent of war. Social tension and dissatisfaction are growing. This does not yet mean an impending revolution, but the direction is exactly that. The intuition says that disrupted internet or fuel shortages are just the beginning of all their troubles.
Without another strategy and vision, the only option is to continue the war and threaten everyone around. Ukraine’s most painful spot is defense against ballistic missiles. Russia knows this well, so it will “go to the bottom” and regularly, as often as possible, attack not so much military but civilian targets and cities. Ukraine’s “Patriot” missile stocks are rapidly depleting. And due to renewed US military actions in Iran, America’s missile stocks and ability to assist are also dwindling.
Not coincidentally, a few days ago, the so-called informal 11-country “Anti-Ballistic Coalition” was formed in Paris. Ukraine and 10 NATO countries decided to pool efforts in air and missile defense.
There have been various coalitions before, but this one is exceptional for at least a few reasons.
First, when we talk about “those willing and able,” we often miss another essential aspect, without which the first two descriptions make no sense. There must also be an “operational” coalition. And one operating precisely in the area that today has critical importance. We need to defend against ballistic missiles.
Second. It is important to immediately supply Ukraine with the most important available air defense systems.
And third. To assess strategic changes in forces. As the US gradually withdraws its forces and weapons from Europe, it is necessary to develop Europe’s military potential, including long-range weapons and American “Patriot” system analogs.
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Europe still heavily depends on US-made “Patriot” systems designed to neutralize top-class ballistic missiles, but this dependence must gradually be changed. Reduced dependence would not mean detachment – it would simply strengthen NATO’s European pillar. This includes increasing production of existing European defense capabilities and investing in next-generation defense technologies.
The first significant changes in NATO are already underway. NATO plans to acquire up to 10 Swedish “Saab GlobalEye” early warning and control aircraft. They will replace part of the aging fleet of American “Boeing E-3A Sentry AWACS” planes.
Of course, this does not mean that Europe and NATO will be completely independent of the US. F-35 fighters, the same “Patriot” air defense systems, and surveillance systems will continue to be used. But, for example, European “Airbus” planes will be increasingly used in airborne transport programs.
Let’s return to V. Putin’s “war strategy.” He clearly hopes to maintain the war regime for at least a few more years, to maintain the war economy, which still grows GDP. His “strategic thinking” simply does not generate other ways to grow GDP. There is also no reason to rejoice at reduced unemployment rates. What is there to rejoice about? The workforce is currently at the front, and its shortage is already becoming a problem. It is also not worth hoping that the war will exhaust Ukraine. Time is now on Ukraine’s side. Russia itself will hold on as long as the West allows it to earn from oil and gas. Maybe Europe will finally stop “breaking records” by buying liquefied gas from Russia?
There is the 21st sanctions package. There will be the 121st. And we will always lag behind Russia’s ability to adapt by several “moves” if we remain so clumsy.
Maybe finally, after a year of “marinating,” the senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal’s “atomic” sanctions package against Russia will come to light. On Wednesday, Senator R. Blumenthal urged colleagues to approve the legislation in honor of the late Senator L. Graham.
V. Putin will still be able to follow tales about Russia’s economy being resistant to sanctions and war for some time. But the patience of both society and the so-called “elite” is already running out. How long this will last depends also on the West’s determination. Now there is an opportunity to establish an irreversible trend of Russia’s failures on the front and in the economy. For this, a working coalition, not a promising one, is needed. This is possible. Russia is definitely not winning and will not win. That will be the victory of Ukraine and all of us.
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