The market continued to be most disturbed by geopolitical challenges: the war in Ukraine, the conflict between Iran and the United States. Also remaining in focus are supply disruptions in the Azov and Black Sea region, interference with the operations of Russian seaports, and the Hormuz Strait saga. These mentioned challenges increased oil prices, but approaching the weekend, they stabilized – around 87–88 US dollars per barrel.
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In turn, weather forecasts relieved the market from prevailing stress: this effect was clearly reflected in falling prices. For example, rapeseed prices on the MATIF exchange have dropped by 6.7% over the past two weeks, and wheat prices by almost 3 percent. The prices of the latter crop are influenced by two different poles: geopolitical tension drives growth, while consumption and good weather forecasts drive decline. The question remains open: who will win?
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Both grain and other market dynamics continue to be driven by weather conditions and the so-called “El Niño” phenomenon, as well as the pace of harvests in the European Union, the US, the Black Sea, and other regions. Currently, harvesting has started and has been ongoing for some time in many places, so future results are one of the strongest factors that will determine pressure on grain prices.
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