This long-term trend is also confirmed by the latest data from the Agricultural Data Center (ŽŪDC) on coupled income support for dairy cows. The number of support recipients is decreasing faster than the number of eligible cows, so the average herd per recipient is increasing.
“It is important to evaluate these changes together. A decreasing number of herds or cows alone does not show the whole picture of the sector – at the same time, the average herd size and the productivity per cow are increasing. This helps to better understand how the structure of Lithuania’s dairy sector has changed over the decade,” says Julija Šataitė, head of the Agricultural Support Department at ŽŪDC.
As the structure of the dairy sector changes, the picture of coupled income support also changes. The calculated support amount for 2026 is about 46.1 million EUR – slightly more than 44.2 million EUR in 2023. At the same time, the average support per recipient increased from about 2.5 to 3.9 thousand EUR.
Fewer herds, but much larger
Over the decade, the average dairy cow herd in Lithuania increased from about 6 to 15 cows.
The ratio of the smallest to the largest herds has changed particularly noticeably. The number of herds with up to five cows decreased from 41.3 thousand in 2016 to 8.9 thousand in 2026. They still make up a large share of all herds, but only about 9% of dairy cows are kept in them.
Meanwhile, the number of herds with more than 100 cows increased over the decade from 264 to 303, and the number of cows kept in them – from 73.5 thousand to 97.1 thousand.
The change in structure is even clearer when looking at their share: a decade ago, herds with more than 100 cows held about a quarter of all dairy cows, and today – almost half.
Over the decade, the sector’s structure has clearly shifted towards larger herds – today, a much larger share of dairy cows is concentrated in them than before.
One cow produces more milk
The changes in herd structure were accompanied by increasing productivity. The average milk yield per controlled cow increased from 5.5 tons in 2016 to 7.6 tons in 2025 – a 38% increase.
During the same period, the number of dairy cows decreased from about 301 thousand to 203 thousand, or about one third. However, the total amount of milk produced changed much less – from 1.63 to 1.54 million tons, or about 6%.
This shows that the increasing productivity per cow helped compensate for a significant part of the decrease in the number of cows.
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Support encourages both productivity research and cooperation
The coupled income support system also provides an additional incentive for farms that participate in productivity research or cooperate through cooperatives.
Dairy cow keepers whose test herds participate in productivity research receive an additional 10 EUR for each eligible cow. Thus, support is linked not only to the number of animals kept but also to consistent evaluation of herd data.
An additional 30 EUR per eligible cow is granted to keepers who are members of recognized agricultural cooperative societies and sell milk to them. This provides an extra incentive for cooperation, which is especially important for smaller farms seeking to strengthen their bargaining position and operational continuity.
The pace of change differs across regions
The trend of herd enlargement is visible throughout Lithuania, but its pace varies by region.
Over the decade, the average dairy cow herd in Panevėžys County increased from about 7 to 25 cows, in Šiauliai – from 7 to almost 23, and in Marijampolė – from 7 to almost 20 cows.
The latest coupled support data show a similar regional picture. In 2026, the average number of eligible cows per support recipient was almost 28 in Panevėžys County, almost 24 in Šiauliai, and about 20 in Marijampolė.
Meanwhile, in Alytus and Vilnius counties, the average number of eligible cows per support recipient was about 7.
Regional differences show that the structure of Lithuania’s dairy sector is not uniform, but the overall trend is clear – average herd sizes are increasing, and a growing share of dairy cows is kept in larger herds.
The long-term trend is complemented by the latest data
In 2023, about 17.4 thousand recipients received coupled income support for dairy cows, and in 2026 – 11.9 thousand. During the same period, the number of eligible cows decreased much less – from about 201 thousand to 181 thousand.
Thus, the number of support recipients decreased much faster than the number of eligible cows. This complements the longer-term picture – dairy cow herds are getting larger, and increasing productivity helps maintain much more stable production volumes.
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