How the granaries will fill this year: this year’s harvest is forecasted to be no worse than last year’s

How the granaries will fill this year: this year's harvest is forecasted to be no worse than last year's

According to the company’s forecasts, about 7.73 million tons of agricultural crops are expected to be harvested in Lithuania in 2026, compared to 7.65 million tons last year. It is forecasted that the total harvest volume will grow by more than 1 percent.

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According to Justas Eimontas, Head of Grain Purchasing at Linas Agro, the first signs of this year’s harvest are quite positive. However, he advises waiting for the start of the harvest, which will allow for a more realistic assessment of the situation in the fields.

“Still, having received the first harvested crops this year, we observe quite positive trends. Moreover, if the forecasts prove true, we will see a continued recovery after the poorer period of 2021–2023. Therefore, we look at this year’s harvest forecasts with cautious optimism,” says J. Eimontas.

Wheat leads, rapeseed expected to be less

As presented in the forecasts, wheat will again be the most harvested crop this year – about 4.9 million tons, most of which will reach export markets. Compared to the previous year, a slight increase in this crop’s volume is expected.

According to the grain market expert, although the wheat forecasts for 2026 are not record-breaking, much hope is placed on the quality of these crops. He states that this year somewhat more favorable natural conditions have developed, which may have allowed for stronger crops to grow.

However, J. Eimontas points out that natural conditions have adjusted the rapeseed harvest forecasts: with a decrease in declared areas, a slightly smaller harvest of about 900 thousand tons is expected this year. Compared to 2025, when 933 thousand tons of rapeseed were harvested, a decrease of more than 3.5 percent is forecasted.

“Still, even the lower rapeseed harvest forecasts for this year correspond to the average of the past few years. Moreover, judging by the oil content of the first winter rapeseed delivered to elevators, the harvest quality will be no worse than the previous year,” comments the expert.

Barley and beans surprise

If rapeseed brought pessimistic moods to this year’s harvest forecasts, barley pleasantly surprises. According to Linas Agro’s calculations, about 750 thousand tons of barley are expected to be harvested this year: this is the highest result since 2015, when 812 thousand tons of this grain were harvested.

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Commenting on these forecasts, J. Eimontas emphasizes that farmers declared larger barley areas in 2026 – about 172 thousand hectares, compared to 155 thousand hectares the previous year. According to him, the yield of this crop is also encouraging.

“Barley is the first new season crop to reach our elevators, so it acts as a kind of indicator for the remaining crops. We hear really good yield figures from farmers: from an average of 5 tons per hectare in poorer soils to more than 9 tons per hectare in fertile areas. Moreover, the thousand-kernel weight of this year’s winter barley – its most important indicator – is slightly better than last year. This allows us to expect no worse results from other agricultural crops,” states J. Eimontas.

Besides barley, the grain market expert highlights beans in this year’s harvest forecasts. Considering the declared crop areas by farmers, about 113 thousand hectares of beans were sown this year: this is a record high area since 2015. Accordingly, a record large harvest of about 350 thousand tons of these legumes is expected.

“In Lithuania, we have both very well and moderately growing bean fields, so the final result may vary. Differences in harvest may also be influenced by when the beans were sown and when they flowered. If they flowered before the heatwave we had in June, the beans had many pods, were dense, and could accumulate much potential. However, if they flowered during the heat, the crops could have suffered. Still, this year’s bean harvest can be encouraging,” says J. Eimontas.

He also highlights oats, whose harvest, according to forecasts, has been steadily increasing over the past few years and should reach about 280 thousand tons this year. According to current data, this is the highest result since 2020.

“Oats are another very Lithuanian crop, as a very large part of the harvest remains in our country. We have quite a few buyers and growers, so this crop is well established. As shown by crop declaration data and our forecasts, this year’s harvest can be really large. However, only when the harvest gets underway will we see a clearer picture of how the granaries will look this year,” says Linas Agro Head of Grain Purchasing J. Eimontas.

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