It is likely that “El Niño” will be the strongest in at least the past 1000 years and will bring even more heat into the atmosphere, although the temperature there is already rising rapidly due to global warming.
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The combination of these factors means that 2027 could far exceed the previous temperature record and become the hottest year in the entire observation history.
“El Niño” is already affecting various regions of the world – from intensifying forest fires in Indonesia to weakening vital monsoon rains in India. The effects of this phenomenon are expected to spread worldwide: the risk of fires may increase in Australia, and floods may intensify in South America. The World Food Programme warned in August that about 50 million people could face acute food shortages due to “El Niño.”
The climate crisis caused by fossil fuel pollution is already intensifying extreme weather and causing human deaths. This summer, Europe experienced the hottest heatwave ever recorded, which is estimated to have killed at least 35,000 people. “El Niño” could further amplify these effects – the scale of the predicted phenomenon is already described as “hard to comprehend.”
“El Niño” is a natural climate cycle when changes in winds cause the Pacific Ocean temperature to rise and huge amounts of heat to be transferred to the atmosphere.
According to the latest data published on Monday, the ocean temperature in the main “El Niño” zone is 2.6 °C higher than the 30-year average. This indicator is already almost equal to the largest anomaly ever recorded in the satellite observation era – 3.1 °C. It was recorded in 2015, several months before the predicted peak of “El Niño.”
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Based on the average of 14 different model forecasts, the peak of “El Niño” in November could reach about 4 °C. Climate analyst Zeke Hausfather stated that data from the analysis of corals, tree rings, and historical documents show that no “El Niño” event in the past millennium has reached this level.
Additional concern is raised by recent studies showing that due to global warming, “El Niño” cycles are now intensifying, which in turn further increases the impacts of the climate crisis.
“Before our eyes, ‘El Niño’ is becoming stronger. Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is entering uncharted waters, and these waters are warming. The world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. We are now racing between increasing risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win this race,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.
Similar insights were shared by Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “‘El Niño’ can strike communities and economies worldwide. We are already seeing disruptions and devastating effects caused by droughts and floods, and as ‘El Niño’ strengthens, we expect these to become even more pronounced.”
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