While the share of indebted entities remains large, the total amount of debt is decreasing – since February, the debt to the State Tax Inspectorate (VMI) has decreased by approximately 35 million euros, to “Sodra” by about 4.8 million euros, and the debt recorded in the Credit Bureau system by about 29.5 million euros. At the same time, the amount of seized funds grew by approximately 8.3 million euros to roughly 633 million euros.
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Overall debt indicators show improving payment discipline
From February to June, the total tax debt to VMI decreased by 0.4%, although in the same period in 2025, it grew by 0.7%. A short-term jump of about 3.2% was recorded in March compared to February, but by June, the debt amount decreased again. The number of companies with tax debts continues to grow, but this trend started much earlier, and in spring, the growth rate noticeably slowed down. The annual increase decreased from 16.7% in February to 11.8% in June.
“Judging by the total debt amounts alone, payment discipline even improved this spring. Debts decreased faster than seasonally usual, and the number of companies indebted to “Sodra” decreased. Therefore, the indicators are not characteristic of an impending economic downturn,” says Vaidas Žagūnis, a member of the “Citadele” bank board and head of Business Banking Services in the Baltic States.
This assessment is supplemented by “Sodra” data. Social insurance debt from February to June fell by 10.5%, faster than in the same period last year when the decrease was 7.4%, and the share of debtor companies shrank from 12.8% to 11.5%.
Account seizures reveal what debt statistics do not show
According to Artūras Potelis, head of the commercial department at “Creditinfo Lietuva”, debt is an obligation that can often be spread out or renegotiated. At the same time, an account seizure means that funds are already actually frozen during enforcement, which directly impacts a company’s ability to pay salaries and settle with suppliers.
“It is important to assess not only the size of the debt but also the number of account seizures and the amount of seized funds. Debt shows a financial obligation, while seizures signal stricter enforcement or restrictions. When both large debts and significant amounts of seized funds are recorded in the same sector, it is a stronger risk indicator,” says A. Potelis.
The corporate debt recorded in the Credit Bureau system decreased by 19.1% from February to June – significantly faster than in the same period last year when it contracted by 6.4%. However, the amount of seized funds moved in the opposite direction – this spring it increased by 1.3%, although in the same period in 2025, it had decreased by 3.3%.
The number of seizures remained essentially unchanged, although it is usually expected to decrease at this time of year. Currently, 5,136 companies have seized accounts – 1.5% more than in February. The average amount of seized funds per company grew to approximately 70.6 thousand euros.
“All four seizure indicators moved in the same direction simultaneously. The changes are not large – ranging from one to three percent, but their consistency is most important. It is precisely the enforcement indicators that show where financial difficulties turn from potential risk into a tangible reality,” notes V. Žagūnis.
Greater financial risk is concentrated in several sectors
The majority of business debt falls into five sectors. Trade companies account for almost 28% of VMI debt, real estate companies – about 17%, manufacturing and construction sectors – about 13% each, and the transport sector – about 11%. According to Credit Bureau system data, the largest shares belong to manufacturing and construction companies, approximately 23% and 21% respectively.
A less favorable seizure dynamic was recorded in the transport and warehousing sector, which weakened across all indicators in spring, and somewhat milder in wholesale and retail trade. The transport sector may be additionally affected by geopolitical uncertainty and possible fluctuations in energy resource prices. Fuel-intensive sectors, such as transport, usually feel the increase in costs among the first. However, four months of data and so far small changes in indicators do not allow them to be reliably linked to one specific cause.
“Where large debts and growing seizure amounts meet in one sector, the risk signal is significantly stronger than each indicator separately. Currently, the clearest example is transport, and July-September data will show whether this is a temporary fluctuation or an emerging trend,” says V. Žagūnis.
What this data means for business
According to V. Žagūnis, the data so far does not indicate a systemic deterioration of business finances, but it also does not provide a basis to ignore the emerging risks in individual sectors. When assessing the reliability of business partners, it is important to monitor not only their outstanding debt but also the enforcement measures applied. A seized account is a much earlier warning than an unpaid tax bill.
“For companies in transport, trade, and other fuel-sensitive activities, liquidity reserves, payment terms, and fuel cost management should remain at the center of business attention. General debt indicators currently remain quite stable, but it is precisely the dynamics of account seizures that can first show whether this situation is changing,” says V. Žagūnis.
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