As British political scientist Mark Galeotti writes in his article in The Times, these strikes are essentially the Kremlin’s response to Ukraine’s attacks targeting Russian oil refineries, pipelines, and tankers transporting fuel to Crimea. He noted that even Russian rhetoric has taken on a new tone of anger.
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Galeotti reminded that the Kremlin continues to hint that Moscow is supposedly ready for peace talks, albeit on its own terms. Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin even suggested that Ukraine proposed a mutual moratorium on strikes against long-range targets, but this offer was rejected.
The expert pointed out that some Russian government commentators have shown unusual restraint regarding the initiative to mutually cease strikes on long-range targets. Moreover, Moscow increasingly talks about involving China or Brazil as intermediaries and initiating new peace talks with Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin has abandoned any hopes of making a breakthrough under U.S. President Donald Trump.
Galeotti believes that the very fact that these proposals are being made at all is significant. However, publicly Moscow does not soften its position and continues to raise its demands, including a complete withdrawal of forces from Donbas.
According to the political scientist, despite various Kremlin hints, Russia continues its attacks against Ukraine.
Against the backdrop of these massive strikes, the number of civilian casualties is increasing. Galeotti noted that, according to United Nations human rights officials in Ukraine, an average of 170 people are killed or injured daily in July, which is more than last year.
Despite the huge number of civilian casualties in Ukraine, Western intelligence officials are not convinced that the Russians are deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure.
However, the situation could change, warned Galeotti. He reminded that Ukraine currently lacks missiles for Patriot systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles. As a result, the country is essentially unprotected against such threats.
Galeotti does not rule out the possibility that Russia may begin to strike even more civilian targets in Ukraine to cause even greater suffering to ordinary Ukrainians. Some Russian ultranationalists are already calling for more drone strikes on residential buildings, as well as missile strikes on sewage and water treatment facilities, power substations, and bridges.
Galeotti reminded that the Kremlin has previously tried to break the Ukrainian will to resist, including during last winter’s campaign against energy infrastructure. However, there is no reason to believe that this time it will succeed any better, as even Russian defense experts admit.
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What is Putin’s main problem
The political scientist emphasized that Putin now has several escalation options. However, all of them involve huge risks.
Galeotti is convinced that one of the least likely options is the use of tactical nuclear weapons, perhaps in the form of a demonstration explosion operation at sea. According to him, such a step could be an attempt to force Kyiv and its Western supporters, gripped by panic, to ask for peace.
However, it could just as well prompt NATO to take retaliatory actions and undoubtedly alienate China and India, whose support Putin hopes for.
Galeotti does not rule out the possibility that Putin could intensify Russia’s sabotage campaign against European factories producing weapons for Ukraine, as well as against road and rail routes used to transport them. On the other hand, this would inevitably provoke European outrage precisely at a time when some countries are beginning to reconsider their level of support for Ukraine.
The political scientist believes that Putin could also announce a new mobilization, calling perhaps hundreds of thousands of reservists into the army.
However, according to Galeotti, a new mobilization could provoke a very negative reaction and cause serious unrest within Russia itself. The last such attempt was in the fall of 2022, when crowds of Russians left the country.
Galeotti emphasized that pressure on Putin is also increasing from the Russian elite. The elite demands that he end the war or at least stop it.
The expert is convinced that much now depends on what Putin decides. If he does not abandon the idea of completely occupying Donbas, there is no basis for peace.
He stressed that now both Ukraine and Russia are trying to exhaust each other, so there is a possibility that if neither side can deliver a decisive blow, some negotiations could be held.
