Cold winter does not affect summer weather
The question of whether we will have hot months after a cooler winter is being raised more and more often. Speculations quickly emerged that the fact that the winter was truly deep and cold means that the summer will also be “as it should be”. However, meteorologists immediately refute this popular notion.
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„It is always very difficult to say anything specific about summer. Often, one can only guess what it might be like.
One should not believe those sayings that a cold winter supposedly leads to a hot summer. If such a connection truly existed, then we could make very accurate long-term forecasts in advance,” explains Gytis Valaika, a meteorologist at the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service.
According to him, precisely because of the significant weather changes in Lithuania, longer-term predictions remain very approximate, and long-term forecasts rarely come true in reality.
What do the calculations show?
Foreign models provide more reliable guidelines.
„Long-term forecasts, which are compiled by Americans with much greater resources, currently calculate that summer in our region should be slightly warmer and drier than the average during the 1991–2020 period,” says the meteorologist.
More specific figures are already available for the first month of summer.
„Currently, the air temperature for the first month of summer is forecast to be 0.5–1 degree higher than usual, and the amount of precipitation – close to the standard climate norm (SCN: 15.9 °C and 68 mm),” states G. Valaika.
Statistics speak in favor of warmth
Recent years’ statistics also provide hints about the possible nature of summer.
„Out of the last ten summers in Lithuania, as many as 7 were warmer, only 2 were colder than average, and 1 was close to the norm.
Thus, even statistically, there is a higher probability that this summer may be warmer than average,” notes the specialist.
However, he reminds that statistics do not guarantee a result, as even last year, according to statistics, summer was supposed to be warm, but it turned out as it did…
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„On the other hand, I would have said the same a year ago. Nevertheless, the summer of 2025 was slightly cooler than the 1991–2020 average or, comparing it differently, the coolest since 2017. We almost, one might say, avoided tropical nights and heat last year,” says G.Valaika.
Well, but still, this year the heat might not pass us by.
„There is a high probability that we will not avoid it this year,” warns the meteorologist.
Downpours, squalls, and hail – summer companions
Even if summer is warm, it does not promise peace. Already in spring, more than one day reminded us of itself, full of extremely strong wind gusts. True, heavy downpours should be expected later.
„Every summer, it is impossible to avoid heavy and very localized downpours, when almost half a month’s norm falls in just a few hours in one part of a larger city or district, while a dry period continues in another,” says G.Valaika.
He separately highlights the stormiest days.
„In summer, at least 2–3 days are very stormy, when not only heavy rain is recorded, but also squalls, more intense thunderstorms, and larger hail.
Natural disasters cause more and more damage in Lithuania, so I do not wish for them to be experienced,” he says.
True, in recent years, when meteorologists forecast storms and downpours, residents received warnings about them on their mobile phones. However, these warnings were confirmed only for some of them, so some people quickly began to complain that their phones were ringing unnecessarily, and meteorologists were failing to “predict” even storms that would occur in a few hours.
Nevertheless, G.Valaika emphasizes that this happens precisely because very localized natural phenomena have become widespread in Lithuania, where at the same moment the sun is shining in one part of the city, and in another, rainwater is flooding doors.
„If someone does not see these phenomena in their yard, then they should not be angry at meteorologists for allegedly inaccurate forecasts, but rather rejoice that the phenomena have once again bypassed their homes,” urges the interviewee.
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