One Western diplomat told journalists that Kyiv could “collapse” this year. A Ukrainian official added that he expects a “real hell” by October.
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“They (Russian occupiers – ed.) will torment Kyiv. They will try to exploit fatigue, exhaustion, and other factors to provoke a tragedy,” said the Ukrainian official.
The publication notes that in Kyiv, stores close several times a day due to air raid sirens, and when public transport is suspended, people cannot continue their journeys. Schools send children home or move classes to underground shelters, so parents are considering sending their children to Western Ukraine or even abroad.
Journalists noted that each departing family reduces the tax base and workforce, which has already decreased due to about a million people serving in the military and a similar number hiding to avoid mobilization.
Moreover, diplomacy has failed to stop the hostilities. According to the publication’s sources, during visits to Moscow and Kyiv, US President’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner discussed a proposal for a limited technical agreement with Russian and Ukrainian representatives.
The publication also writes that US President Donald Trump is trying to blame Ukraine’s attacks on Russia for high global diesel prices. According to the publication, the possibility of negotiations may open after the Russian State Duma elections on September 20, which “The Economist” calls a farce, and the US midterm elections in November.
According to the publication’s sources, D. Trump may try to present to voters as his achievement an agreement on the Black Sea that would ease the blockade of Russian oil and Russian and Ukrainian grain exports. Trilateral US, Russian, and Ukrainian talks may also take place in early October in Abu Dhabi.
The Ukrainian official also noted in a conversation with journalists that there is no reason to believe the US will demand a fully pro-Russian agreement. However, according to him, it would be an illusion to expect a broader peace agreement or ceasefire. He emphasized that V. Putin will not agree to stop the offensive until next spring.
Meanwhile, Ukraine intends to continue fighting and inflict huge damage on Russia. The publication added that the fight for territories continues but clearly not as V. Putin would like – the net Russian territorial gain this year, according to the publication’s estimate, may be about 100 square kilometers, or just 0.017% of Ukraine’s territory as it was before 2014.
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According to one of the publication’s sources in Ukraine, the confirmed number of Russian soldiers killed is 600,000, while Ukraine estimates it kills 22–23 thousand Russian soldiers each month. Adding the severely wounded, Russian losses likely exceed the current recruitment rate of 30–31 thousand soldiers per month.
Winter is approaching
The publication emphasizes that Ukraine is better prepared for this winter than in previous years. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, long a primary target of Russia, has been strengthened with the help of Western countries.
However, Ukrainian officials and analysts expect that Russian strikes on the energy sector will still occasionally cause large-scale power supply disruptions and will likely be more frequent than last year.
The publication emphasizes that Kyiv and its energy infrastructure are the most likely targets of the occupiers. According to sources, if, as last year, local power generation facilities are destroyed, Kyiv could become an “electricity island,” dependent on a few vulnerable infrastructure nodes.
One such node is the large 750 kV substation in Makariv, Kyiv region. If this node operates, Kyiv would receive electricity about 16 hours a day, and if it is not functioning – only four hours.
One Ukrainian official told journalists that the moral pressure of a harsh winter will likely force everyone to unite. However, he did not rule out that it will be one of the toughest challenges.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky announced that Kyiv and Kyiv region are included in the list of high-risk areas. Local businesses can now receive partial compensation for property damaged or destroyed due to Russian military aggression, as well as partial insurance premium compensation under war risk insurance contracts.
Previously, only the territories of Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Chernihiv regions were included in the list of high-risk areas.
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