According to V. Fesenko, if a ceasefire for strikes on energy facilities was indeed offered to Ukraine and Russia, but without concrete negotiations on this issue, the prospects of such an idea are very doubtful.
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As an example, he recalled the US administration’s attempts to achieve similar ceasefires last spring.
“But everything fell apart because there was no agreed document. The Americans held separate negotiations with the Russians and separate negotiations with us. They allegedly reached an agreement, but in the end everything collapsed, and the Russians refused to implement it. A similar story could repeat now,” the political scientist noted.
The expert raised two possible reasons why the US president was in such a hurry to announce the ceasefire.
“The first version: there was an idea, there were proposals, and there could have been an abstract positive response… As Zelenskiy said: ‘We are ready if the other side adheres to the agreement.’ But to what extent? Which facilities? Who will monitor how it is implemented? All this, as I understand, was not agreed upon. This is the first version, and today it seems more likely,” he guessed.
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The second version, according to V. Fesenko, is related to the upcoming US midterm elections, in which Republicans may face serious problems.
“It is important for him to announce this (even before reaching an agreement – ed.), because he hopes that, as with oil prices… remember, he has made statements about ceasefires many times? It had an effect – oil prices dropped. Now he hopes for the same effect,” the political scientist explained.
In his opinion, D. Trump does not really care whether the ceasefire becomes a reality, whether the hostilities will stop, or whether it will be effective and long-lasting. The most important thing is that it has a positive impact on the domestic situation in the United States before the Congressional elections.
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