In August, the average wholesale electricity price in Lithuania was about 80 Eur/MWh, almost 6% higher than in July, when it was 75.63 Eur/MWh.
September, according to data from previous years, does not have a clear price trend. Last year, the average electricity price increased from 80.06 Eur/MWh in August to 84.04 Eur/MWh in September. In 2024, the situation was the opposite – the price decreased from 108.95 Eur/MWh to 83.68 Eur/MWh, and in September 2023 it rose again – from 102.49 Eur/MWh to 117.41 Eur/MWh.
“September is one of those months where predicting price changes is especially difficult – in recent years we have seen both significant price increases and decreases, so we cannot rely solely on seasonal trends. Currently, it is more important to assess the situation in Lithuania and neighboring energy markets, and the existing conditions do not yet create many grounds to expect cheaper electricity,” says Mantas Kavaliauskas, Commercial Director of Elektrum Lietuva.
Solar generation will decrease, and consumption will increase
One of the most important factors determining the electricity price in September will be the balance between production and consumption. After the summer holiday season ends and the usual work rhythm returns, electricity demand will increase, while shortening days will reduce solar power generation. Therefore, in the mornings and evenings, when renewable energy production decreases and electricity demand rises, more electricity will need to be produced from other sources or imported from neighboring markets.
Wind generation in Lithuania and the Nordic countries, which directly affects electricity prices, will also be important. If lower wind and solar power generation coincides with higher consumption hours, the risk of price increases will be further heightened by higher natural gas prices.
“In September, it will be important not only how much electricity solar and wind power plants produce but also at what time of day this energy is generated. If lower renewable generation coincides with peak consumption hours, the missing electricity will need to be supplied by more expensive production sources or imports. This will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the average electricity price for the entire month,” explains M. Kavaliauskas.
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As the heating season approaches, Lithuania’s dependence on regional markets may increase further. During the cold season, the country does not always produce enough electricity to cover all needs, so the missing amount may be supplied by local fossil fuel production or imports. Often, the economically more favorable solution is import from Latvia, Sweden, or Poland, but these markets also face their own production and consumption risks. Therefore, the electricity price level in Lithuania is determined not only by the local situation – what happens in other interconnected European electricity markets also has an impact.
Lower energy reserves increase uncertainty
Additional pressure on the energy market is increasingly caused by natural gas prices. According to the Lithuanian Energy Agency, from August 24 to 28, the average wholesale gas price at the Netherlands TTF trading point increased by 3.1% over the week, reaching 60.92 Eur/MWh. At the same time last year, it was 32.7 Eur/MWh.
At the beginning of September, TTF prices had already exceeded the 70 Eur/MWh mark. This indicates that as the heating season approaches, the “winter effect” is strengthening in the market – with increasing consumption prospects and limited supply, the main question is no longer whether gas prices will be pressured to rise, but to what extent.
At the end of August, EU gas storage was about 65% full, while at the same time last year it was about 78%. This means that Europe is entering the upcoming heating season with a significantly smaller reserve cushion. Hydropower reserves in the Nordic countries also remain lower than usual. For this reason, the market becomes more sensitive to weather conditions and energy resource price fluctuations.
“Lower energy reserves mean the market becomes less resilient to unexpected changes in demand or supply. If gas demand rises in autumn, hydropower production decreases, or additional supply disruptions occur, prices could rise faster. This risk is also contributed to by the situation in the Middle East, which may continue to affect gas prices in Europe, which in turn directly impact electricity production costs. Therefore, considering all these factors together, the price scenario for September is not optimistic so far,” says the Commercial Director of Elektrum Lietuva.
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