He spoke about this on the social network “Facebook”. He agreed to share the post with the news portal Žmonės.lt.
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„Jessiconomy
This weekend, a kind of economic El Niño took place in Vilnius. And it was caused by one singer.
Two sold-out concerts in Vingis Park. One hundred thousand people over two evenings. The numbers are impressive, but economically the most interesting thing is not what happened on stage. The most interesting thing is what was happening around it at the time.
Let’s start with comparisons.
“Go Vilnius” works and advertises all year round, attracting 1.2 million people per year. Jessica Shy gathered one hundred thousand in one place over a weekend. Sounds like an interesting comparison and somewhat shows the singer’s “weight”.
Of course, some of the concert attendees are Vilnius residents themselves, but there are signs that Vilnius was flooded with the singer’s fans. Especially the traffic jams entering Vilnius showed this. Abroad, there have been calculations that stars even cause inflation in the city. So let’s try to calculate.
There are almost no places left on Booking.com.
When tens of thousands of people flood into the city in a very short time, the first to feel it are businesses whose supply cannot be quickly increased. The best example is accommodation.
On Saturday, my search in Vilnius on Booking.com showed 42 accommodation places left. Yesterday there were 5 places left. The platform itself showed that 96% of its supply for my dates was already unavailable.
Prices are accordingly. A 28 square meter one-bedroom apartment in Naujamiestis – 344 euros per night for two. The situation precisely illustrates what is called a demand shock in textbooks.
You can’t increase the supply of overnight stays in Vilnius in a few days. Maybe experience from the Song Festival was needed and beds arranged in school gyms? And the number of people wanting to stay suddenly increases by tens of thousands. What happens to the price? Correct – it rises.
Jessica Shy gave a pretty good practical microeconomics lesson over the weekend.
Even gravity briefly reversed.
Taxi drivers and ride-hailing drivers worked day and night. The city set up special drop-off points, launched additional bus routes, and higher-capacity trains ran to Kaunas. On Friday, traffic jams formed on the roads to Vilnius.
Where have you seen this on the last weekend of summer? Usually at this time Vilnius empties, and the car flow moves towards the seaside – to see the sea one last time. But it was the opposite.
Cafes and bars got a rush of customers, although their ability to take advantage of the jump is smaller – a restaurant cannot easily double prices for one evening as a hotel with the last free room can.
And behind two concerts stands a long chain: stage, sound, security, logistics, and another ten things no one thinks about.
But an economist would rightly stop me
“Wait. A person bought a hundred-euro ticket, but maybe because of that, they will buy less sausage next week. Where is the growth here?”
Good question.
If a Vilnius resident spent a hundred euros on a concert, not on a restaurant or shoes, a large part of “Jessiconomy” is just a redistribution of consumption. The money did not appear but just changed pockets.
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The situation changes when a person comes from elsewhere. A person from Kaunas exports their consumption to Vilnius. A foreigner – already to Lithuania. And upon arrival, they rarely buy just a ticket. They need accommodation, dinner, taxi, coffee the next morning, and another “oh, since I’m already in Vilnius” purchase.
This is where the real part appears: money that without this event in Vilnius would not have been spent at all. Of course, the state also takes its share through alcohol excise taxes, VAT, and created jobs.
And, of course, how could it be without the second pension pillar. I almost have no doubt that among the hundred thousand there were those who left part of the money they withdrew for the ticket or hotel. In that case, we have almost a fiscal stimulus. A kind of QE with speakers that the whole city hears.
Let’s remember. Stockholm, the stadium, and how much all this is worth
To prove this is not my fantasy, it’s worth looking north.
After Taylor Swift concerts in Stockholm, hotel prices jumped 11% in a month – the most since 2019. This was measured by the Swedish statistics office. Around the same time, Barclays published a study predicting that the same tour would bring almost a billion pounds to the British economy.
One number is measurement. The other is bank marketing. The difference is worth remembering every time someone promises that an event will “bring the economy” a round sum.
Here I should write that the future stadium will make such weekends more frequent. I just explained that a large part of this effect is redistribution. The stadium does not create new money. It only helps invite outsiders more often. That’s a lot, but it’s not a miracle.
It would be very interesting if banks published how the value of card payments changed over the weekend in Vilnius and how many additional overnight stays were sold.
Maybe we would see an impressive jump. Or maybe it would turn out that I am blowing the “Jessiconomy” bubble a little here.
On Monday, prices will return to normal. Traffic jams will disperse from Jessica’s fans, and new ones will start from schoolchildren and unfinished repairs. Booking.com will again be full of free rooms.
The economy moved to Vingis Park for the weekend.
P.S. If any of the banks do publish that data – I will write a second part. And if the numbers are bad, I will publicly admit that I was the one blowing the bubble, not the singer,” M. Busila wrote on the social network “Facebook”.
We remind you that on Friday and Saturday Jessica Shy did what no Lithuanian artist has managed to do.
In Vingis Park, she held two impressive shows that attracted 100 thousand fans.
These concerts became a very significant event not only in Jessica Shy’s career but also for the entire capital.
The popular artist gave her fans unforgettable, top-level shows, featuring not only well-known hit songs but also songs from her latest album “Liepa”.
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