A meteorologist speaking on Alytus radio station FM99’s show “Such a Day” warned not to expect a repeat of the scenario of the past three years, when Septembers in Lithuania were exceptionally warm.
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Current calculations show a September warmer than the long-term average, but it may be significantly cooler than in 2023, 2024, and 2025.
The recent Septembers were exceptional
According to G. Valaika, the Septembers of the past three years are not the best reference point for deciding what kind of weather to expect this year.
“The Septembers of 2023, 2024, and 2025 were very unusually warm. This year would be the fourth consecutive time if it were that warm,” the meteorologist told FM99.
He said current data shows that September temperatures should be above normal, but likely will not reach the warmth of recent years.
“So far, it looks like September will be warmer than normal, but definitely not as warm as in the past three years, when it was really very, very warm and we even had records. Those were anomalously warm months,” said G. Valaika.
The meteorologist does not rule out that among the last four Septembers, this year’s could be the coolest.
“If you take the last four Septembers, including this year, this year might be the coolest in these recent years. The past three Septembers were just very, very warm,” he said.
The morning of September 1 currently looks favorable
The most relevant forecast for students and parents is for September 1. According to current calculations, there should be neither intense heat nor autumnal chill on Monday morning.
“At least that morning should be cloudy with clearings. I would say it’s a completely typical September morning. 17–18 degrees. It won’t be cold, nor hot,” said G. Valaika.
Short rains may form in the afternoon, but the morning, when September 1 events will take place near schools, is currently forecasted to be quite favorable.
The meteorologist also emphasized that forecasts may still change slightly before Monday.
Alytus was simply lucky during the storms
The conversation also covered the severe storm that hit Lithuania on August 22. According to G. Valaika, such strong winds are not typical for the summer season and resembled more the storms of late autumn or early winter.
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Very strong wind gusts were also recorded in Dzūkija. Publicly available data showed gusts reaching up to 24 m/s in Lazdijai, and 25–28 m/s in other parts of the country.
The scale of the storm was large. BNS reported that firefighters received more than 1,200 calls on Saturday alone, 188 of which were in Alytus County. More than 250,000 users were left without electricity during the storm.
Asked by FM99 why Alytus itself avoided some of the strongest storm sections, the meteorologist did not look for a special explanation.
“Simply lucky,” said G. Valaika. According to him, looking at lightning strike maps showed that one more active section moved north of Alytus, another elsewhere.
The meteorologist gave the example of the Leipalingis area: in one village the storm may have caused almost no damage, while just a few kilometers away the forest was heavily uprooted.
Does not attribute a single storm to climate change
G. Valaika cautiously assessed attempts to immediately link a specific storm to climate change.
“I never rush to attribute something to climate change. I always say that without a proper climate analysis you cannot say for sure that it is definitely climate change,” emphasized the meteorologist.
However, he said the overall trend of extreme events and the damage they cause is visible. This summer in Lithuania there were both very hot and quite cool periods, and the season stood out more for the abundance of precipitation, especially in Western Lithuania.
Southern Lithuania experienced exceptional heat this summer. On June 28, a temperature of 36.3 degrees was recorded in Druskininkai, setting a new all-time June heat record for Lithuania.
What about Indian summer?
G. Valaika does not yet venture to predict whether we will have an Indian summer this autumn.
“I don’t know if there will be an Indian summer. It certainly doesn’t happen every year, so I won’t say whether it will or won’t,” he said.
Usually, such a period of warmer and drier weather, according to the meteorologist, occurs in the last ten days of September or early October. If the first half of September is cooler this year, the possibility of later warming remains.
For now, the nearest forecast is simpler: enjoy the remaining summer-like warm days. There will still be warmth over the weekend and early September, but by mid-next week the weather may more clearly resemble the beginning of autumn.
