On Tuesday, warplanes attacked a base in northern Syria, near the Turkish border.
B. Netanyahu said that Turkey sought to establish a military base there, and that by ignoring Israel’s warnings, “we made sure they understood it more clearly.”
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On Thursday, Turkey denied that its troops were at the airbase in northern Syria that was shelled by Israel this week, and promised to continue firmly supporting Syria’s sovereignty.
In turn, Israeli Defense Minister Israelis Katz accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of “dragging Turkey into dangerous adventures in Syria.”
As the October 27 elections approach, B. Netanyahu’s campaign put up billboards with images of several leaders, including R. T. Erdogan, with the caption: “They want Netanyahu to lose.”
R. T. Erdogan is a harsh critic of Israel’s massive offensive in the Gaza Strip following the unprecedented October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Relations worsened due to Israel’s aggressive behavior in seizing Turkish activist flotillas attempting to deliver aid to the Gaza Strip.
However, unlike other countries targeted by B. Netanyahu, such as Iran, Turkey has powerful allies. It is a NATO member, and R. T. Erdogan maintains warm relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, whose ambassador in Ankara condemned Israel for the strikes.
Ankara’s relations with Israel are also not straightforward. Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel, and the countries previously engaged in active trade, although during the Gaza war Ankara declared it would cut all business ties with Israel.
Yair Golan, leader of Israel’s center-left opposition Democratic Party, called the attack in Syria “provocative and dangerous,” warning that it “brings us closer to confrontation with Turkey and deepens the rift among our allies, primarily the United States.”
“Military force is again being used for political purposes, and again Israel pays the price for security,” said Y. Golan.
Widespread suspicion of R. T. Erdogan
R. T. Erdogan, who allowed Hamas leaders to live in Turkey, has many Israeli critics even beyond the prime minister’s circle. Center-right opposition figure Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, earlier this year accused B. Netanyahu of ignoring the “new Turkish threat” by focusing only on Iran.
Gallia Lindenstrauss, senior researcher at the National Security Studies Institute in Tel Aviv, said that R. T. Erdogan’s uncompromising rhetoric has done little to ease Israeli concerns.
“There is also concern that as Turkey shelters Hamas, it may allow militant groups to operate inside Syria, which could pose a future threat to Israel,” she said.
However, she noted that Israel, having established a so-called security zone in southern Syria, has essentially reconciled with Turkey’s interests in the north.
“You see Netanyahu using the hostility to Turkey card. I think he sees it as something that can rally his supporter base,” said G. Lindenstrauss.
B. Netanyahu faces opposition accusations that he has not achieved many of his war goals, such as overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran or destroying Hamas, said Gonul Tol, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
In the United States, although R. T. Erdogan has many critics, any direct actions against Turkey could turn B. Netanyahu into an “irresponsible leader who would do anything to stay in power,” said G. Tol.
“If he crosses that line, I think he has to understand that it won’t be beneficial for him, because you also have the Trump unpredictability factor, and Netanyahu cannot expect his support,” she said.
In her opinion, Turkey denied Israel’s accusations as a way to ease tensions.
“Erdogan, as a populist leader, could have simply taken the opportunity to say we will attack, we will respond, but he did not,” said G. Tol.
In the middle – Syria
Turkey’s interests in Syria have historically been related to curbing the spread of Kurdish fighters.
But now its priority is to revive Syria’s economy so refugees can return, as well as to promote a strong regional ally at a time when Greece, Cyprus, and Israel are opposing Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, said G. Tol.
Turkey supports Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa, a former Sunni jihadist whose rebels overthrew longtime leader Bashar al Assad at the end of 2024, ending the brutal civil war.
Syria’s challenge is not to become an arena for other conflicts, said Maher Tamran, a writer and policy researcher based in Damascus.
“It has to take advantage of the competition between Turkey and Israel to regain Syria’s sovereignty,” he said.
Both Turkey and Israel “agree on Syria’s stability but differ in their views on the very definition of stability.”
