Journalists from the news portal “Agentstvo” analyzed the mentioned report and noted that the analysis allowed them to identify several possible candidates for the position of V. Gerasimov.
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Among them are the Ground Forces commander Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev, Moscow Military District commander Sergey Kuzovlev, and Air Force commander Alexander Chaiko.
The authors of the report based their conclusions on a detailed study of the career paths of Russian officers, including the heads of the Russian General Staff.
According to them, every General Staff chief since 1997, before assuming these duties, held leadership positions (commander or chief of staff) in a military district and had some work experience in the General Staff or Ministry of Defense structures.
The typical age at which a person is appointed Chief of the General Staff ranges from 55 to 62 years. According to analysts, the candidate for the position usually held the rank of Colonel General and was then quickly promoted to Army General.
As noted in the report, A. Chaiko’s career in many respects mirrors V. Gerasimov’s professional path before his appointment as Chief of the General Staff.
A. Chaiko served twice as Deputy Chief of the General Staff and previously commanded the 20th Guards Army and the Eastern Military District. V. Gerasimov also had experience commanding an army and military districts and served as Deputy Chief of the General Staff.
According to the personnel policy of the Russian military, 55-year-old A. Chaiko is of optimal age to take over the position of Chief of the General Staff within the next two or three years.
Meanwhile, S. Kuzovlev currently commands the Moscow Military District, where the central military apparatus is located, CNA noted.
Analysts write that the Moscow Military District has historically been a springboard for high-ranking positions in the General Staff. Moreover, S. Kuzovlev has also gained the experience required for a candidate: he commanded the staff of the 58th Guards Army and the 20th Guards Army. He also served in three military districts and led forces in Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine.
58-year-old S. Kuzovlev is considered an older candidate for the position of Chief of the General Staff, but analysts believe his appointment prospect remains real.️
Meanwhile, the eight years younger A. Mordvichev is assessed in the report as the most likely successor to V. Gerasimov.
He was unusually early promoted to the rank of Major General at 37 years old. A. Mordvichev received the rank of Colonel General at 47. Since the age of 49, he has commanded the Russian Ground Forces.
It is noted that A. Mordvichev also held leadership positions in all four military districts formed in 2010 and commanded the Central Military District before his current appointment.️
CNA analysts concluded that although A. Mordvichev may seem too young to hold the position of Chief of the General Staff given the tendencies typical of the Russian military, the rapid pace of his career rise suggests that he could be the one to replace V. Gerasimov.
Other researchers’ findings
The average length of service in the highest leadership positions in the Russian military has sharply shortened since the war in Ukraine began: from 4.1 years in 2011–2021 to 1.4 years in 2022–2025. Such frequent personnel changes may negatively affect the ability of military leaders to effectively perform their duties, analysts highlighted.
They also noted that the Russian military appointment system responds to failures on the battlefield. Researchers recalled that poor results of the Russian military in the first years of the war against Ukraine were accompanied by waves of dismissals and demotions.
Among other things, many personnel decisions are also related to the mutiny organized by former mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Due to mistakes and failures, most commanders are dismissed, sent to reserve, or transferred to other positions, analysts assessed. Moreover, military officers are often not only dismissed but also prosecuted.
