As one economist’s acquaintance told the Telegram channel “The Bell,” VEB head Igor Shuvalov dismissed A. Klepach after 12 years of work “after receiving a call from above.”
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A second source confirmed that the reason was public statements about Russia’s backwardness, due to which it will not be able to win a “war of attrition,” as Ukraine is supported by the West.
“We are nurturing an illusion”
Among other things, A. Klepach stated that the domestic economic costs due to sanctions and the Western blockade are growing, damage is increasing due to Ukrainian strikes on ports, infrastructure, chemical and oil plants, and Russia is lagging behind in technological progress.
“We are falling behind. We are losing both technological and economic competition in the world. Moreover, as I have already said, we are losing not only to China and the United States, but in some respects also to Ukraine. We are nurturing the illusion that everything there will collapse. It has not collapsed and will not collapse. Our costs are growing,” emphasized the economist.
“We will not win the competition in this long-lasting war,” he added.
He also warned about the threat of a social crisis in Russia “at a time when no one essentially expects it” and compared the situation to the period before the February Revolution of 1917 and the collapse of the USSR in 1991.
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“I think Russia will not collapse, but I am almost certain that we will come to a social crisis,” he concluded.
VEB is an important Russian state bank that finances Kremlin national projects and has the status of a “state development corporation.”
Before joining this organization, A. Klepach worked for 10 years at the Ministry of Economic Development, starting his career as director of the macroeconomic forecasting department. From 2008 to 2014, he served as deputy minister — during this time, the ministry had three different heads.
The dismissal of A. Klepach, one of Russia’s best macroeconomists, is unlikely to delay the approaching crisis he talks about.
“Only propagandists on the payroll, not respected economists, can fail to see the problem, given the almost zero economic growth rate, dual-track industrial development, and declining investments, while unproductive defense spending is increasing,” commented Alexandra Prokopenko, senior researcher at the Carnegie analytical center, on the situation.
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