A. Latham noted that the interviewed officials mentioned various possibilities – from cyberattacks and actions through intermediaries to, in the worst case, a limited ground invasion of the Alliance’s eastern flank during the period from this autumn to 2029.
The analyst emphasized that this assessment does not widely discuss the most dangerous scenario – a limited ground invasion. A. Latham noted that this scenario is considered unlikely, but the probability of its implementation gradually increases each year.
“The authors of the document do not provide journalists with percentage probabilities of scenarios, and what was ultimately published more resembles a forecaster’s reserve assessment,” said the article’s author.
He pointed out that the report appeared about a week after Russia’s “Kh-101” missile fell in eastern Poland.
“How NATO now reacts to a small provocation best shows how the Alliance will respond to a larger one,” A. Latham believes.
At that time, F-16 fighters were scrambled, and the Lublin prosecutor’s office investigated the missile debris within a few days.
German General Staff General Christian Freuding stated in June that all 32 NATO member states agree that Russia could have the capacity to invade one of these member states by 2029.
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A. Latham emphasized that this statement relates to what Moscow will ultimately be able to create, not what V. Putin will want to do once he has those capabilities.
According to him, another important aspect is Russia’s motivation. The analyst quoted Lithuania’s Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas, who stated on July 20 that the Kremlin needs a new victory because the war in Ukraine is stuck, and agreed that the minister’s view is correct.
However, he noted that there are two reasons why the alleged Russian invasion remains irrational.
First, crossing NATO’s border would cause Moscow to lose the ability to deny its actions, regardless of what NATO does.
The other reason is the possible NATO response, which is now said to be strong and would make the risk not worthwhile for Russia.
