According to him, if the Kremlin thought logically, its master Vladimir Putin would look for possible options to freeze the current standoff on the front line, negotiate for sanctions to be lifted, revive the economy sinking in the swamp at least a little, and somehow “sell” the achieved “victory” to his society.
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“It will not be possible to impose such news on the world, but he doesn’t care,” the diplomat notes.
L. Linkevičius noted that the Kremlin leader is already being advised from all sides, even by his closest supporters – the war must be stopped.
It was precisely this that Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dared to propose for the first time, with V. Putin present.
“True, he immediately reiterated his feelings of loyalty to powerful Russia, but, nevertheless, publicly questioned the reasons for this military conflict. How else to interpret this, if not as “friendly fire” in the back?” the former minister wrote.
“Putin’s environment is trying to suggest that further escalation, further exhaustion, is already becoming more harmful to Russia itself. All those pieces of advice do not make a big impression on Putin, just like the increasingly frequent reproaches from mothers that they do not give birth to children for him and his war games,” L. Linkevičius sharply stated.
However, the ambassador noted that in Russia, never, since the times of the Second World War, has human life, especially that of a soldier, been highly valued.
“However, the current trend already threatens to disrupt usual, long-term war plans, becoming impractical. The average daily losses at the front recently reached 1500. The replenishment of ranks – former prisoners and alimony evaders – has dried up. Even contracts worth thousands do not tempt people to go to the front, as it practically amounts to an application for a cemetery.
After short training, “produced manpower,” ever-decreasing ranks of experienced instructors, and a military command that is “stuck,” constantly trying to please its supreme commander instead of acting according to military logic, is unable to achieve any goals,” the diplomat assessed.
According to him, in order to at least maintain the current confrontation and hope for something more than the 7th time “liberated” Kupyansk, a general mobilization is necessary in Russia.
“To those “inhumane and unbearable” deprivations for a spoiled society – internet disruptions, fuel shortages – millions in losses for small and medium-sized entrepreneurs have recently been added. Millions lost in “Wildberries” warehouses. And if mobilization hits, it will “hook” everyone. Tears of pity and indignation alone may not be enough,” L. Linkevičius wrote.
As the former minister emphasized, Russia still has another path to choose, but V. Putin is convinced that there is no other choice.
“He will, without a doubt, continue to bomb civilian infrastructure from the last remaining warehouse reserves. As winter approaches, he will traditionally strike Ukraine’s energy sector. He will probably also try to deter NATO from supporting Ukraine and organize some provocations or acts of sabotage. And he will still have to resort to general mobilization – already this autumn,” the diplomat outlines a grim forecast.
According to L. Linkevičius, this winter will be very difficult for Ukraine: “But this is not the first difficult winter. Ukraine will endure. However, such an idiotic stubbornness from Putin will help destroy Russia itself. Neither Ukraine nor NATO will be needed.”
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