As EUobserver columnist Edward Lucas writes in his section, one of the most significant blows to the Kremlin comes from China. According to him, Beijing refuses to supply ship propulsion systems needed for the Arctic “Northern Sea Route” project.
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Moreover, plans to build the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline, which was supposed to have a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year, have practically collapsed. China demands to pay for Russian gas the same price as Russian domestic consumers – about 50 US dollars per 1,000 cubic meters. This is only one-fifth of the price the Kremlin wants, although it was already significantly reduced.
According to E. Lucas, China has alternative energy supply sources, so it can dictate terms. Meanwhile, Russia has lost time and other buyers – the remaining export of Russian gas supplied through pipelines to the European Union should completely stop by 2027.
Additionally, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries mean that Russia may have to import oil products from China, giving Beijing another important leverage.
The columnist states that other countries also notice Russia’s weakening and are beginning to act more independently.
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia
Kazakhstan recently banned the majority of Russian wheat imports.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev publicly expressed demonstrative support for Ukraine during a speech.
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Meanwhile, Armenia independently continues the restoration of railway connections with Turkey and Azerbaijan, despite delays from Russia, even though Russia formally controls this railway network.
Relations between Russia and China
Last winter it became clear that China increased its support for Russia in its war against Ukraine in 2025. Western officials estimate that this support will only grow this year.
Recently, The Economist magazine wrote that due to tightening Western sanctions, Russia’s dependence on China to finance the war in Ukraine is increasing. Although Beijing officially declares neutrality, in practice it supports Russia’s war industry by supplying strategically important goods.
Analysts estimate that China supplies Russia with a wide range of dual-use products – from microelectronics to various industrial equipment.
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